I wanted to write this after Steve Kates lamented why the Essential poll showed 61% support of Dan Andrews, in his The Melbourne Syndrome Revisited post. I said at the time something along the lines of, the polls are manipulated in such a way so they’re used as a weapon to whack the neigh-sayers. They’re in effect a political cancel culture attack vehicle and outright propaganda. I still hold that view.
However, there’s real world data in the public domain, that since its inception in 2004, is batting at 100%. I was enlightened just after the 2016 US Presidential election, by Jim Stewart. Jim is a Search Engine Optimisation expert. His company consults for businesses, getting their websites to rank in Google search engine results either organically or using Adwords. Just after Trumps win, he posted a video looking at the Google Trends results. In that video, he stated that Google Trends has correctly picked the winner in every Presidential election since 2004, and indeed the election in every Western country since. It correctly picked Scott Morrison’s win in last year’s federal election. Even the two elections contested and won by the Canadian champion of blackface, Justin Trudeau. To illustrate the point, I suggest you watch this 9:12 minute video where Jim breaks down the data, analysing the 2019 Federal Election.
Google collects the input of search phrases every time you Google something. It’s a search phrase popularity contest. This information can be used to write content for a website, especially in an e-commerce setting. But if you have smart election campaign staff, it can also be used to gauge how well your campaign is going and what issues you need to address.
Now that we’re in the last 2 weeks of the Presidential election, let’s compare the last 2 weeks of the 2016 Presidential election campaign to the current previous 2 weeks. I’ve used the search terms Hillary Clinton (blue team) and Donald Trump (red team). Then done the same for this campaign: Joe Biden (Blue Team) and Donald Trump (red team). Note the filter used to select results exclusively from where it counts, in the United States.
When you look at the averaged interest for the period on the left, that is very close to the actual margin of electoral colleges won by Trump in 2016. It really is very good indicator.
Now look at the last 2 weeks to date of the Biden vs Trump election race in the current race.
Note the average interest for the period. At this point Google Trends shows Trump is #winning comfortably and by a much healthier margin than 2016. If you then look at every other issue facing this election, levels of interest, policy positions, law and order, Hunter Biden etc, you know the democrats are looking more and more like charcoaled toast.