Late in the day alarm bells are starting to ring as the rising tide of unreliable energy swamps the grid in the middle of sunny days and the reliable sources that provide inertia (stability) in the system are closed down.
The rule changes that are being discussed to demand more reliability in the supply pose a deadly threat to the financiers who are backing the solar and wind projects that are in the construction pipeline or are being planned. They are not happy about this, so expect a frenzy of lobbying and PR activity to maintain the rage to support unreliable energy.
The Clean Energy Investor Group, which has $9bn of assets under management and is backed by MacquarieCapital, RWE Renewables and UK developer John Laing, said if the proposal went ahead there could be an extra burden of $3.4bn in higher electricity prices up to 2050 with 3000MW of clean energy projects seen at risk.
Modelling by Baringa Partners, commissioned by the CEIG, shows the cost of capital for clean energy projects is projected to increase by 150 basis points due to revenue uncertainty created by the AEMC’s proposals to move to locational marginal pricing. “Cost of capital increases for investors will flow through to wholesale price impacts for consumers. This is detrimental to both clean energy generators and energy consumers and highlights why the AEMC must revisit its proposed grid access proposals,” said CEIG chair Simon Corbell.
Modelling also forecasts that 3000MW of new renewable energy projects will be deferred due to unacceptable levels of risk associated with revenues from new projects, also creating more emissions in the system.
OMG more emissions!
Related. RE insiders will soon have to get real about the zero level of RE that shows that the whole RE adventure was based on a spectacular failure of due diligence (checking the wind supply. ) This picture tells the story. The key feature is the black line at the bottom showing that the minimum level of wind power (effectively zero) has not changed enough to make a difference as the number of windmills increased from 2011 to the present. The green line rising from left to right is the installed capacity of the windmills. It runs flat after 2020 although in fact there will be significant additions quite soon.
On top of that, no Moore’s law for battery storage.
OTHE NEWS. Asian Renewable Energy Hub Revised Proposal. No power for Singapore after all!
Key revisions include:
- addition of downstream processing facilities utilising seawater and renewable power to produce green hydrogen and ammonia as stored renewable energy, replacing the transmission of power to Southeast Asia in the original proposal;
- original proposal export power cables replaced with desalination plant intake and discharge pipelines, and ammonia product export pipelines and loadout, extending into Commonwealth waters to ship loadout facilities approximately 20 km offshore;
- provision of at least 3GW of power generation capacity to be reserved for use in the Pilbara.
Liberty Quote – Hitler’s Institute for Tobacco Hazards Research helped calculate the “national economic cost of smoking”. But its figures were probably as fraudulent as those routinely concocted today — Adam Crieghton