Draggin’ China down

This is a rarity, an article on the Chinese economy which forecasts that it is going nowhere. By Rowan Callick in The Australian yesterday: Ticking time bomb: why Xi is dragging down the dragon. The sub-head: “It’s a scenario that has become almost unthinkable, but what if China’s economy — which is being driven substantially by Western stimulus funding — starts to slide backwards”.

It is the innate belief by virtually everyone that a centralised socialist economy can outperform a free market capitalist economy. It is the combination of Keynes with Marx that makes this seem to make some kind of sense, but these are both macro views of the world without a smidgeon of microeconomic thought about how resource allocation is to occur so that inputs flow towards their highest valued uses. I thought this was a pretty big sign of the times for Victoria the other day when it handed down its insane budget: Curious case of the missing budget paper:

The Andrews government has come under fire for omitting a key budget paper revealing expenditure on infrastructure projects, sparking accusations from the opposition that it is censoring the budget.

What are they hiding, you might ask. Head down St Kilda Road sometime and see the massive works on the station at The Shrine, a billion dollars worth of  uncompleted construction to build a station where no one ever goes, other than on ANZAC Day. Centralised economies become such disasters that eventually there is no hiding the problems any longer. And so it is with China. For me, this is evidence of an economy in a complete shambles:

The consumption share of China’s economy is low today — only 39 per cent of GDP — compared with 66 per cent in the US, and it is well below the 45 per cent reached in China itself at the start of the 2000s.

Oz also has around 66% consumption share. The article also shows the published GDP stats:

 

GDP is such a misleading indicator. I used to love pointing out the massive holes in front of our building at RMIT where our state socialists are building some kind of station for a train line that won’t be operational for seven years. All that expenditure goes into the National Accounts, but not until the train line opens will there be even a single dollar’s worth of value added returned for all of the prior expense.

So with China. The Chinese are amongst the most entrepreneurial people on the planet, but if their entrepreneurs are overridden by political leaders it will not mean a thing.

As for our dealings with the Chinese, foreign policy should not be mixed up with trade. We are part of the Western alliance. There is no abandoning our foreign policy essentials even in a Biden-led America (heaven help us). If China won’t buy our coal and lobsters sell to someone else. Markets, as mysterious as they are to your average socialist nong, are our friend.

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65 Responses to Draggin’ China down

  1. stackja says:

    Xi rules!

  2. Roger says:

    As for our dealings with the Chinese, foreign policy should not be mixed up with trade. We are part of the Western alliance. There is no abandoning our foreign policy essentials…

    We shall see:

    Listen closely: The sound we heard this week was the penny dropping. Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Australia’s top diplomat, Frances Adamson, have both set out a vision for Australia that accepts the old order is changing.

  3. Morsie says:

    Mark Steyn has for years been suggesting that China will be a victim of its demographics. Due to the one child policy China will get old before it dominates the world. It seems Xi realizes the danger and is having a last roll of teh dice for world domination.

  4. mem says:

    foreign policy should not be mixed up with trade.

    Duh! It always has been and always will be.

  5. Lee says:

    What are they hiding, you might ask. Head down St Kilda Road sometime and see the massive works on the station at The Shrine, a billion dollars worth of uncompleted construction to build a station where no one ever goes, other than on ANZAC Day.

    I agree; I couldn’t believe it when Dictator Dan’s government announced it.

  6. Boambee John says:

    Steve

    Look around for a copy of a book by Paul Dibb, back in the 1980s. Title something like The Incomplete Superpower.

    It caused much controversy at the time amongst the commentariat and Sovietologists by predicting that the Soviet economy was heading towards economic collapse. The great and the good sneered, and then not many years later, the Soviet Union collapsed on its own contradictions, including economic ones.

    Might be some useful parallels to draw?

  7. min says:

    There have been massive floods in China in the past few months but not much news about them . There was some concerns about the Three George dam that was filled to 50 ft over capacity ,abow had been found in the wall and they were expecting more floods coming down from above it in October . Early on there were pictures of flooding intowns below and farmers were told to store good crops as expecting a famine . Suddenly all quiet. One child family has also led to belief that families will not want to lose the only child in a war.
    This info via friends sis in law who came from China about 10 years ago and goes back often.

  8. Roger says:

    One child family has also led to belief that families will not want to lose the only child in a war.

    Maybe so, but China has the largest standing army in the world and has never had difficulty attracting volunteers. Thankfully they are c. two decades behind the US in terms of equipment and technology. More significantly they now have the world’s largest navy (acc. to US DoD as of Sept. 2020) with six aircraft carriers planned by 2035 and the third largest air force.

  9. max says:

    ABC News reporting today Australia to take China to the WTO over imports.

    Should keep things bubbling along nicely.

  10. Vicki says:

    If China won’t buy our coal and lobsters sell to someone else.

    Try us! Havn’t had a lobster that wasn’t frozen (& worth a king’s ransom) for decades. I have zilch sympathy for the lobster trade since they have lost the China market. Why not give the local market a chance to eat fresh lobbie???

    Barramundi the same. Travelled throughout NT & WA & were told all the fresh barramundi goes OS. Finally did get fresh caught in Broome. It was magnificent. Just cooked it simply on a gas ring (we were camping) – lightly floured – accompanied by Asian greens lightly fried in garlic oil. Memorable.

  11. Chris M says:

    You can see their problem right now – dozens and dozens of ships full of imports that they are unable to pay for thanks to dwindling foreign currency reserves.

    Massive debt implosion to come! And it’ll be accompanied by the always theme: “it’s the fault of the West!”

  12. Oh come on says:

    China has rolled the dice. It clearly believes it is in a position capable of supplanting the US in terms of global leadership and is overtly making efforts to disrupt and dismantle the trade and security apparatuses put in place by the US.

    I think China has bitten off way more than it can chew. It is surrounded by powerful, technologically advanced and wealthy countries that are extremely wary of an aggressive China emerging. It has no allies that are of any use. It’s going to have to do all of the heavy lifting on its own.

    Its economy is strong and is its trump card, but the Covid pandemic has demonstrated conclusively the danger of relying on a single country to supply the world’s manufactured goods. There will be significant economic decoupling from China – it’s already begun. This process will take 5+ years, but that’s not a long time at all for China to establish the global hegemony it seeks. After that, it won’t have the ability to hold the world hostage as it does now.

    One final point to consider is the Chinese people. Unlike the Soviet people – who were used to their own deprivation despite the relative strengthening of their country, and incongruities like being the first nation to put a man into space but not being able to manufacture toilet paper – the Chinese people have become much more prosperous as a part of China’s rise. I don’t think they’re going to kick the commies out if confronting the rest of the world begins to deliver widespread hardship (the CCP will just increase the stick and cut the carrot), but it will mean the Chinese state has to to divert significant additional resources to maintaining internal order at a time when it will already be overstretched.

    Anyway, we shall see. It would be rash for Australia to make any major strategic shifts in its foreign policy so early in the game.

  13. Roger says:

    but it will mean the Chinese state has to to divert significant additional resources to maintaining internal order

    A significant part of the PLA is already deployed maintaining internal order. It’s going to be quite a problem for them if things go pear shaped domestically.

  14. EllenG says:

    Kates the economist strikes again! His rail stations are built instantly. His markets are unlimited. And now he has discovered that China functions as a state led economy. I can see how he buys the Trumpeting.

  15. H B Bear says:

    China is the World’s biggest economic experiment in history. One billion people, untold billions of dollars, hundreds of millions still in rural poverty. I wouldn’t want to place a bet how it works out. US has 250 years under its belt. Capitalism has the runs on the board.

  16. Baa Humbug says:

    The Chinese may well be entrepreneurial people, but there aren’t too many low level managers or workers who can pound the desk of a higher up. It’s just not done. You do as you’re told and keep your mouth shut.
    That is why they have to steal all their IP.
    The Chinese haven’t invented anything of significance that I know of since black powder.
    An art thief doesn’t make an artist and his lifestyle ends when the stealing ends.

    I wouldn’t put too much stock into the demography thing just yet.
    There are plenty of poor SE Asian girls for lonely (but wealthy by comparison) Chinese men to lure and marry.
    Plenty of other upheavals will happen before any demographic upheaval hits.

  17. Adelagado says:

    I also wonder how the collapse in the tourist trade to China will affect them. It might not be a huge earner compared to what they export but I’m sure it provided plenty of financial cream, so to speak. Even after the pandemic is over, who the hell would want to go to Hong Kong?

  18. Rex Anger says:

    Kates the economist strikes again! His rail stations are built instantly. His markets are unlimited. And now he has discovered that China functions as a state led economy. I can see how he buys the Trumpeting.

    Moar gin required, Ellen…

  19. Adelagado says:

    Baa Humbug
    #3674791, posted on November 29, 2020 at 2:12 pm

    I wouldn’t put too much stock into the demography thing just yet.

    Its not so much the gender imbalance as the age/reproduction issue. The Chinese will start dying off faster than they can repopulate. (Actually, even a 2 child policy doesn’t cut it in the reproduction race.). Once the Chinese start to really appreciate the financial benefits/necessity of having smaller families it will be very hard to reverse that trend. This will ultimately mean a labor shortage which will push up wages and threaten their production cost advantages. What comes after that? An even more ruthless system of slave labour?

  20. Baa Humbug says:

    @Adelagado
    #3674811, posted on November 29, 2020 at 2:37 pm

    What you say is all true. However, China has (effectively) limitless supply of labour at mo. There are still hundreds of millions of labour age people. It will take many decades before any labour shortages (and technology keeps making labour less relevant).
    Also, there is no reason why they can’t import labour from neighbouring countries (like the Arabs do). There’s another few hundred million there.

    So many other “crisis” will happen to China before any labour shortages.

  21. AndrewWA says:

    I agree that GDP is such a poor measure of our economy.

    Last time I looked Government expenditure accounted for nearly 30% of GDP whil the Mining/Resource sector accounted for <10%.

    Wealth Makers and Wealth Takers.

    Boost GDP by boosting government spending – and hence our debt.

  22. John A says:

    Lee #3674612, posted on November 29, 2020, at 11:42 am

    What are they hiding, you might ask. Head down St Kilda Road sometime and see the massive works on the station at The Shrine, a billion dollars worth of uncompleted construction to build a station where no one ever goes, other than on ANZAC Day.

    I agree; I couldn’t believe it when Dictator Dan’s government announced it.

    Indeed. And neither can the kind of people who know about Melbourne’s public transport system requirements.

    YAFS = Yet Another Folly of Socialists.

    From the Metro Tunnel Wikipedia page:

    “In 2008, transport planner Sir Rod Eddington handed down the findings of a report into Melbourne’s east-west transport needs, following a commission by the Brumby Government.”

    The idea surfaced (:-) ) under the Brumby government, was modified by the stupid Baillieu government, deferred by the somewhat sensible Napthine administration but then modified again by the relapsed-into-stupidity Napthine government.

    The new Treasurer in a rare burst of common sense admitted that it would be difficult to deliver the project because of the complexities of funding.

    However, insanity was eventually restored and the project digs its way into oblivion as we write.

  23. John A says:

    Uh, sorry. The new Treasurer was Tim Pallas in the newly empowered Andrews government v1.0.

  24. H B Bear says:

    Haven’t set foot in Melbournibad for over a decade. I recall a major tram interchange along St Kilda Rd because so many trams were forced to exit the city over the St Kilda Rd bridge. Proximity to the Shrine is mere happenstance. I don’t know how this would relate to the heavy rail network (only ever caught the train to Flemington once a year). A billion dollars for a rail link to the airport certainly sounds like pissing it up against the wall for the benefit of da CFMMEU bruvvas.

  25. Adelago says:

    #3674823, posted on November 29, 2020 at 2:55 pm

    @Adelagado
    #3674811, posted on November 29, 2020 at 2:37 pm

    What you say is all true. However, China has (effectively) limitless supply of labour at mo. …….
    So many other “crisis” will happen to China before any labour shortages.

    I disagree about the limitless supply of labour. I should also have added that the population is not only reducing, but rapidly aging. By 2050 35% of the population will be 65 years old, so there will be fewer young guys to do the heavy work, and a lot more ‘pensioners’ to support. 2050 is ‘tomorrow’ by China’s standards. I think they are very, very worried about this.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_China

  26. Old Lefty says:

    On the perversity of GDP, an economist once pointed out to me that a chain-smoking alcoholic couch potato ‘contributes’ far more to GDP than someone who takes reasonable care of his health: not just because of his purchases of booze and fags, but because the resulting heavy use of health services counts towards GDP.

  27. Lee says:

    Dictator Dan and his government were never ones to believe in cost benefit analysis.

  28. min says:

    One thing to join the military but it’s the coming home in a body bag that parents don’t like.
    Andrews and co will be too busy eating donuts to try and get some on the end of the budget figures.where the Covid donuts have ended up .

  29. Chris M says:

    A significant part of the PLA is already deployed maintaining internal order. It’s going to be quite a problem for them if things go pear shaped domestically.

    A significant part of the Vikpol is already deployed suppressing citizens. It’s going to be quite a problem for them if they are asked to do actual policing.

  30. yarpos says:

    mmmm, yeah hardly anyone lives in Sth Melb or along St Kilda Rd do they? Silly them building all those apartment buildings.

  31. Rockdoctor says:

    Mark Steyn has for years been suggesting that China will be a victim of its demographics. Due to the one child policy China will get old before it dominates the world. It seems Xi realizes the danger and is having a last roll of teh dice for world domination.

    Read a bit saying the same, from a number of different sources with different ideologies. There is also a huge gender imbalance due to sex selection of babies. It is at the point that even SE Asian nations are concerned the same will happen to them. As for the marriage thing, some will but most SE Asians I met when over there thought Chinese made poor husbands due to the expectation from spouse and family to work like Chinese. Then there was the racism issue, never really accepted by family. Han Chinese and in fact any Asian can be quite xenophobic to other nationalities.

    If they are going to launch it will be like 1930’s Germany, before they are ready or they will recede to be a formidable middle level power.

    My untrained opinion anyway from read knowledge and experience.

  32. Boambee John says:

    gorgiasl
    #3674985, posted on November 29, 2020 at 6:23 pm
    China has been over-reporting its growth rate by an average 1.7% per year since at least 2008.

    This means that China is over-stating its true GDP by about 20%.

    Same as the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s, the statistics were of less value than the paper they were printed on.

    That didn’t end well. Eventually reality bites.

  33. Spurgeon Monkfish III says:

    Draggin’ China doon

    That would be Goose Morrissteen – absolutely hopeless …

  34. Spurgeon Monkfish III says:

    Bluddee hell – as in he (it?) still manages to supplicate itself while furiously imbibing chinese cock …

  35. Ed Case says:

    The One Child Policy explained:
    The State only paid the Health, Education etc Bills for the first child. Additional children were the parents responsibility.
    Essentially, it was a Eugenics Program, people who could afford more than one had a choice, the rest didn’t.

  36. Spurgeon Monkfish III says:

    The One Child Policy explained:

    Soft soy boy pooftahs.

  37. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha says:

    The State only paid the Health, Education etc Bills for the first child. Additional children were the parents responsibility.

    Bullshit. The policy also featured forced abortions and sterilizations.

  38. Ed Case says:

    America has spent 90 years keeping China down, perhaps longer.

    They saved the Commos in the Civil War, blockaded the Formosa Strait during the Korean and Vietnam Wars to prevent a Nationalist invasion, took no action over the dreadful massacres of Chinese in Indonesia in 1965-67, connived to remove the Nationalist’s seat at the Security Council and give it to the commos, transferred American Industry there, so, I can’t see America abandoning them anytime soon.

    It’s more likely that America will covertly come to their aid in the event of unrest.
    Those 800 Military Bases aren’t there for show.

  39. Spurgeon Monkfish III says:

    The One Child Policy explained:

    I Chinese – I blow you up! 👺

  40. H B Bear says:

    Ed are you allowed to use the Internet at your special school?

  41. John says:

    Communist economies can achieve economic growth only if they industrialise an agrarian economy. Once they have achieved these one-off gains, that’s it. Nowhere to go. When China hits that point, it’s over.

  42. Bronson says:

    Ed you really should stay off the bottle before you post that way you might make a modicum of sense instead of the bizarro shit you tend to post.

  43. Squirrel says:

    Always suspicious of economic stats from a country which is home to more than one sixth of humanity but which nonetheless manages to produce detailed figures within a week, or two, of the end of the relevant reporting period.

    That said, a consumption share of 39% of GDP is a very long way from the narrative of recent years about boosting domestic consumption to keep the masses happy and to reduce the impact of trade sanctions etc. from those disrespectful barbarians.

    I hope it’s much more a whimper than a bang.

  44. Crossie says:

    That is why they have to steal all their IP.
    The Chinese haven’t invented anything of significance that I know of since black powder.
    An art thief doesn’t make an artist and his lifestyle ends when the stealing ends.

    They may be building aircraft carriers at the rates of knots but I don’t think they’ve stollen enough technology from Americans to make those carriers as effective as theirs.

    Just an observation, I went to the sales yesterday and most of the stock is old, I didn’t see much of anything new season. This means that Chinese factories are not cranking out the usual volume of products. So something is definitely not right.

  45. Ƶĩppʯ (ȊꞪꞨV) says:

    Stats that come out of china are complete and utter bullshit

  46. Charles Rasp says:

    Lee
    #3674898, posted on November 29, 2020 at 4:34 pm
    Dictator Dan and his government were never ones to believe in cost benefit analysis.

    On the contrary Lee: Taxpayers get the cost, ALP/ CFMMEU get the benefits ……

  47. Crossie says:

    I think China has bitten off way more than it can chew. It is surrounded by powerful, technologically advanced and wealthy countries that are extremely wary of an aggressive China emerging. It has no allies that are of any use. It’s going to have to do all of the heavy lifting on its own.

    Its economy is strong and is its trump card, but the Covid pandemic has demonstrated conclusively the danger of relying on a single country to supply the world’s manufactured goods.

    It was not just the realisation of the danger of the concentration of the manufacture power in one country it was China’s suspicious behaviour around every aspect of COVID-19 that pinged everyone’s radar. Everyone is now awake to their tricks and that fact that you can’t trust them.

    So what did they do allay the fears? They are threatening anyone who wants answers. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

  48. Crossie says:

    If they are going to launch it will be like 1930’s Germany, before they are ready or they will recede to be a formidable middle level power.

    Formidable and middle level are sort of contradictory. Let’s just say they can degenerate into buying a nuisance.

  49. hzhousewife says:

    Just an observation, I went to the sales yesterday and most of the stock is old, I didn’t see much of anything new season.

    Pal works locally in small business kitchenware store, two outlets. Has been unpacking stock for Xmas. She reckons her boss ordered stock from China last February and it was shipped and stored by August. Nothing “new” she felt. New sources of stock required now for next autumn, hopefully Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia get a boost selling us dinner sets and pots and pans. Of course, we couldn’t possibly make our own, could we.

  50. Crossie says:

    Of course, we couldn’t possibly make our own, could we.

    For that we would need cheap power and going by what the idiots in every parliament in Australia are planning it is not going to happen any time soon. It looked much easier when Trump lead the way but now that Biden and his puppeteers are about to take control all bets are off.

  51. Albatross says:

    Ed’s on the Case! Didn’t realise he’s a sinologist as well. What a Renaissance man! Is there a solitary subject this man is not foremost expert on?

  52. Rex Anger says:

    They may be building aircraft carriers at the rates of knots but I don’t think they’ve stollen enough technology from Americans to make those carriers as effective as theirs.

    It takes more than stolen tech and copied boats and planes and so forth to create an effective military, especially an effective carrier force.

    The US Navy has been at it continuously since the late 1920s. The Royal Navy, despite havig taken a 20- or 30-year break from carrier aviation, still have enough of an institutional and cultural memory base to redevelop a safe and effective carrier mindset, with a modicum of help from the US.

    China is trying to crash-develop this, in order to challenge US primacy in at least the Pacific.

    Problem being, it is using relatively short-ranged J-15 interceptors as multirole aircraft (efgectively a navalised Su-27, not the multi-role Su-33 of the Russian Navy), on ships that effectively qualify only as escort carriers.

    For all the PLA-N propaganda, these are not the versatile and far-reaching ships and air fleets the USN can bring to a crisis. The planes can protect an invasion fleet, monster a submarine or small convoy, or conduct limited raids against a coastline where air defence resources are limited, but presently that is about it at best.

    And this assumes they can maintain a reasonable aircraft serviceability rate out of the small embarked air fleet, landing/takeoff accidents, general maintenance and spares carriage difficulties, ordnance and fuel stocks and even the ship’s own logistics (small ship = limited space for everything).

    Having all the same shiny (or even more and shinier) toys as your neighbours and peers, is useless if ou have not so invested the even greater cost in money and time in training and developing your people.

    The PLA is big and broad, but I canot help but consider that it lacks strategic depth. The biggest standing army in the world can only be in so many places at once, for only so long. It is a waste to station troops everywhere you want them, if you cannot replace them, feed them or replenish their ammo, water and equipment under hostile conditions.

    For the most part, the US and its Anglophone allies can. I am uncertain that the Chinese presently have the naval, merchant marine and air logistics assets (and experience, knowledge and understanding), to do the same in anything than the most benign of peacetime conditions.

    TL;DR- I consider the PLA is a numerous and dangerous foe for anyone, even up to the USA. But I consider it is likely not anywhere near as capable as its own propaganda makes out.

    Otherwise, pushing neighbours about would involve more than just fihters buzzing maritime patrol aircraft or ramming civilian trawlers with corvettes and destroyers- You’d see groups of PLA-N Marines turning up on their neighbors’ islands and coastlines, planting flags, shooting propaganda films and arcing up coastal police and military installations before fucking off back to their landing craft and troopships.

  53. Craig Sargent says:

    We need to not include government spending in GDP calculations….

  54. Anonandon says:

    Just an observation, I went to the sales yesterday and most of the stock is old, I didn’t see much of anything new season. This means that Chinese factories are not cranking out the usual volume of products. So something is definitely not right.

    More anecdata. The Aldi specials bins in the middle of the store are now a joke. No stock.

  55. Boambee John says:

    Rex A

    The Royal Navy, despite havig taken a 20- or 30-year break from carrier aviation, still have enough of an institutional and cultural memory base to redevelop a safe and effective carrier mindset, with a modicum of help from the US.

    I read recently, probably on a UK site, that RN pilots have been operating with the USN for some years, preparing for the new carriers.

  56. egg_ says:

    In a speech to a British think tank, Morrison sent a message to China that Australia will not be America’s “deputy sheriff” and Canberra will not be making decisions based on a choice between Washington and Beijing.

    Simple pragmatism – with an Economy reportedly the size of Pennsylvania’s, we could easily be crushed in a diplomatic/trade war between the US and China.

  57. The Beer Whisperer says:

    China has rolled the dice. It clearly believes it is in a position capable of supplanting the US in terms of global leadership and is overtly making efforts to disrupt and dismantle the trade and security apparatuses put in place by the US.

    Pure hubris.

    Even with a Biden administration, they’ve lost four years fighting Trump, of which they’ve gone backwards.

    There’s a lot of ruin in a nation, however that comes from capability, of which China is lightyears behind. In the event of war, the US will outproduce in terms of quality AND quantity. Military numbers are for nought, being eliminated at the discretion at the initiator. China can hold existing territories, but not project it, and the US has no need for Chinese territory. It’s a race to eliminate the opponent’s capability, upon which it’s a crippled ship, that can merely stay afloat, at the mercy of enemies.

    China will not explode, it will implode on its inherent contradictions.

  58. Old Lefty says:

    And next time a leftard cites China’s surreal commitments on emissions in contrast with the Morrison fascist junta, point out how much China’s solemn commitments on trade and tariffs, bilaterally and in the WTO mean to them. Never trust a Communist as far as you can throw one with a broken arm.

  59. Old Lefty says:

    All ScoMo needs to do now is distribute footage of PLA tanks squashing their own people in 1989.

    If I were he I’d be asking what is diplomatic speak for ‘f**k off you Communist scumbags’.

  60. Roger says:

    Simple pragmatism – with an Economy reportedly the size of Pennsylvania’s, we could easily be crushed in a diplomatic/trade war between the US and China.

    There are other markets for our exports.

    Typically, we’ve taken the lazy option and for too long.

  61. Ƶĩppʯ (ȊꞪꞨV) says:

    We need to notshould never include government spending in GDP calculations….

    fixingly

  62. Tel says:

    This will ultimately mean a labor shortage which will push up wages and threaten their production cost advantages. What comes after that? An even more ruthless system of slave labour?

    In unrelated news, China has become rather interested in Africa lately.

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