Is Morrison Riding All That High?

In last week’s The Australian the key takeaways from the latest Newspoll was that Morrison is riding high, Albanese is more or less terminal and the Coalition are a certainty to win the next election.

Leaving aside Newspoll’s predictive shortcomings at the last election, a more honest reading of the current poll numbers would indicate that the Morrison Government has failed to build up any political capital throughout the pandemic and is exposed should the recovery falter in any way.

If one assumes that Morrison’s high polling numbers on the questions of “Better PM” and “Leader’s Net Satisfaction” translate into more primary votes, then the Coalition are arguably in serious trouble. The polling suggests that but for Morrison, the Coalition would be well in election losing territory with a primary vote well below that of the last election (i.e. 41.44%), which resulted in a wafer thin three seat majority (down to two after Craig Kelly’s resignation from the Liberal Party). The question is therefore can Morrison’s popularity be sustained at such high levels all the way to the next election?

If history is a guide then Morrison is currently enjoying a high water mark (in very unusual times) and his popularity on the aforementioned metrics will almost certainly fall to more normal levels over time, particularly as we get closer to an election. The highest Morrison scored on “Better PM” before the pandemic was 50%. He is currently on 61%. The highest he scored on “Leader’s Net Satisfaction” before the pandemic was plus 15%. He is currently on plus 32%. For most of his Prime Ministership Morrison has hovered around the mid 40’s for “Better PM” and his “Net Leader’s Satisfaction” has mostly bounced around being slightly positive and slightly negative, albeit with a high of 15% and low of -22%.

The higher you are, the further you fall, and the problem for the Coalition is they have built zero political buffer for the inevitable decline – even if only moderate – in the public’s perception of the Prime Minister’s performance.  Arguably, Morrison is already past his peak. He enjoyed a plus 41% “Leader’s Net Satisfaction” in June/ July of 2020 at the height of the pandemic. That has since dropped to 32% and comes before any of the hard political decisions (e.g. Job Keeper) of returning to a “new normal” have been made much less felt. This should be cause for Coalition concern rather than hubris.

The Coalition (and The Australian journalists) would be wise to remember recent history. Bill Shorten was in a far worse position on the “Better PM” measure shortly after Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, than as Albanese finds himself now. Turnbull was riding high with a 64% “Better PM” rating compared to just 14% for Bill Shorten. A deficit of 50% points. In contrast, Anthony Albanese finds himself comparatively speaking well off with a deficit of 35% points and he can blame a year of being sidelined by COVID-19. Albanese still has time to steady the ship but it goes without saying he needs to start laying the foundations for success.

By the time of the 2016 election Shorten had improved to 31% as “ Better PM” and Turnbull had fallen to 48% and as we know Turnbull scraped home with the slimmest majority possible (76 seats out 151). Between the 2016 and 2019 election Shorten more or less consolidated his gains on the “Better PM” metric but only inching up to 38%, and still trailing Morrison who polled 45% a day or two out from election day. He was nonetheless considered a shoe in by every political commentator in the country. All of which is to say that as horrible as things look right now for Albanese, at 25% “ Better PM” there is plenty of time for things to improve, he is not in as dire a position as Shorten was this far out from an election, and it is highly unlikely Morrison will continue to ride the current wave of “popularity” all the way to Election Day.

Notwithstanding the above, most serious political analysts pay scant regard to surveys on leader popularity / performance. These metrics help to sell newspapers but are not reliable indicators of voting intent. They fluctuate wildly, have high numbers of uncommitted voters, and seemingly lack correlation with the primary vote. Turnbull for example, undoubtedly scored highly early on from ALP and Green voters that would never have voted for a Coalition candidate.

Most political operatives focus on the primary vote, and as stated above at 42% the Morrison Government is sitting more or less in election losing territory. For example, the Howard Government lost in 2007 with a primary vote of 42.09% and the Abbott Opposition narrowly lost in 2010 with a primary vote of 43.32%. Granted the Morrison Government hung on in 2019 with a primary vote of 41.46%, but that was arguably a function of Shorten Labor overreach and required winning 23 out 30 seats in Queensland. They also won 11 out of 16 seats in Western Australia.

It is doubtful Labor will make the same mistake twice and it will be a tough ask for the Coalition to hold all 23 seats in Queensland and 11 in Western Australia. Given the parlous state of the Liberal Party in Western Australia the Coalition could lose government in that state alone.

Under reported in the current Newspoll, presumably because it didn’t fit the predetermined narrative, was the continued improvement in the Labor primary vote which increased to 37%. This is 4% above what Bill Shorten achieved at the last election (albeit about the same in Newspoll terms) and if accurate would likely result in a Labor victory. The Coalition primary vote in turn has dropped from a high of 44% in July 2020, at the height of the pandemic, to 42% now and is consistent with the high water mark for both Morrison and his government being in June/July last year at the peak of the pandemic. This is what spells danger for the Morrison Government.

So what do we make from all this?

For a start we must be careful about comparing apples with oranges, i.e. actual election results to Newspoll surveys. Interpreting Newspoll depends a lot on whether they have corrected what seems to be over counting of the Labor primary vote and consequently under counting the Coalition vote. Newspoll surveys are not election results and have been wide of the mark in recent elections. For example, in the days leading up to the 2016 election Newspoll had the Labor primary vote at 43% and the Coalition on just 36%, whereas the actual result was 34.7% Labor and 42.04% Coalition. In 2019 it didn’t fare much better predicting a Labor primary vote of 37% to the Coalition’s 38% the day before the election. The actual result was a primary vote of just 33.34% to Labor and 41.44% to the Coalition. Hence, the silver lining for the Coalition is perhaps the extent to which Newspoll error seemingly exaggerates Labor electoral support.

That said, even just looking at the Newspoll trend the key takeaway is that the Morrison Government has failed to make significant primary vote gains throughout the pandemic, standing in stark contrast to the State Premiers, which have consistently polled comparatively higher (i.e. “ Better Premier”) than the Prime Minister and have converted that support into insurmountable primary vote gains.

Having largely outsourced the pandemic risk to the States, and in the process elevated the status of the Premiers (and Territory Leaders ) through the creation of a National Cabinet, Morrison has marginalised his own government. His risk averse strategy has ensured that any political dividend in terms of containing the novel coronavirus is being attributed to the responsible State/Territory governments.

Worse still, the creation of a National Cabinet has effectively emasculated the Prime Minister and reduced the Federal Government to a by-stander role as each State /  Premier has gone their own way on everything from hotel quarantine, testing and tracing regimes, school closures, border closures, lockdowns, and the definition of hotspots. Far from leading the nation in a time of crisis, Morrison has been routinely enfeebled, consistently playing the role of the dog being wagged by the tail.

Conservative apologists and defenders of Morrison in the media are quick to cite the constitution and issues of Federal-State subsidiarity to explain away Morrison’s unwillingness to reign in what are arguably recalcitrant state premiers. This conveniently ignores most of the past 50 years (probably more) of political history that has seen the Commonwealth ride roughshod over state jurisdictional providence, intervening and centralising pretty much anything and everything it could get away with. With the aid of the High Court the Commonwealth has employed all sorts of interventionist legal or constitutional arguments and when all else has failed his simply resorted to exercising its superior financial power (i.e. vertical fiscal imbalance) to get its way.

This has not happened during the COVID-19 pandemic. The reality is that Morrison (and his Cabinet) has deliberately chosen not to lead during the pandemic. The Morrison Government chose not to implement a federally designed and operated hotel quarantine system, not to implement a federally designed contact tracing system (other than the useless Federal Government App), and not to design and implement a uniform standard of testing they were nonetheless paying for.

The Morrison Government opted from day one to do as little as possible throughout the pandemic, confining their role to not much more than closing international borders early, funding a vaccine for later, and stumping up for Job Keeper in between. The basic premise of Job Keeper was relatively sound but poorly administered. Not once did the foreseeable consequences of emboldening state lockdowns or border closures seemingly occur. If it did it was rendered moot by Morrison’s acquiesce to every state / territory action without federal funding penalty.

Far from the The Australians assertion that Morrison is riding high, the latest Newspoll result simply shows that the Morrison Government has not benefitted from the COVID pandemic in the manner that all State / Territory governments have, especially the Labor states. Morrison / Frydenberg have arguably misjudged the politics of the pandemic that has empowered Labor states, at its own expense, and will make the re-election of the Morrison Government more difficult. The two states the Morrison Government most needs to hold – Queensland and Western Australia – are emphatically stronger for Labor thanks to their response to the pandemic that Morrison enabled.

Albanese is hence not nearly as terminal as many may think. If anything the pandemic has spared him the spotlight of being a seemingly failing leader and consequently bought him time to regroup . The opportunity is therefore his for the grasping. Whether he can grasp the metaphorical nettle or not only time will tell. Jettisoning Shorten’s disastrous policies at the last election will only hold him in good stead as has been reported the expectation at the next Labor conference. Bandwagoning with popular state premiers will also hold add value (assuming they stay popular where it matters) and something Morrison has gifted.

Morrison on the other hand has all the challenges ahead. Locking down (by states) is easy. Opening up is hard. The vaccination program is the Morrison’s Government’s most obvious challenge and metric. It needs to be rolled out efficiently, it needs to be effective, and more than anything it needs to trigger a return to a more normal way of life and commerce. Hence, it needs to result in a shift in Federal-State pandemic responsibility.

With the roll out of the vaccination program Morrison will be increasingly unable to sit on the fence regarding recalcitrant state governments dragging their feet on international travel arrangements, state border closures, and city / state lockdowns at the first sign of COVID infection. The Morrison Government will now be forced to define what they failed to do at the start of the pandemic – notably, define the relevant metrics as to how we live with COVID-19 – i.e. infections, illness, hospitalisations, ICU rates, deaths and so on, balanced by off-setting costs and how the vaccine mitigates these risks.

Having ceded the political ground the Morrison Government has consequently lost the political narrative of the pandemic to State Premiers thus far. Despite Morrison’s personal uplift in polling it is underwhelming in comparison to the uplift most state premiers have received including Daniel Andrews (say no more). Should Albanese-Labor capitalise on state government popularity the prospects of the Morrison Government look average to say the least, regardless of what Newspoll commentators opine.

The bottom line is the initial Morrison uplift in Newspoll (July 2020) during the height of the pandemic has failed to lift the primary vote of the Coalition. In fact, the Coalition primary vote has declined from 44% to 42% between then and now. The Labor primary vote has in contrast increased from 33% to 37%. Regardless of Newspoll accuracy the trends are going the wrong way for the Morrison Government. The Morrison Government will need to hold all seats in Queensland and Western Australia which is unlikely given the current popularity / strength of both Labor leaders and governments.

The Morrison Government has not made anything of the pandemic from a policy point of view. It has not advanced any policy reform whatsoever at a time in which it could have brought a few things onto the table (i.e. workplace reform, health, tax reform, energy reform) at a time in which it had leverage. It’s aversion of political risk paralyses government policy. The absence of government policy is what keeps Labor and Albanese in the game.

Contrary to Newspoll commentators the upside is all with Albanese. Reject the policies of Shorten (which he seemingly is doing), ride the coat-tails of popular state premiers in Queensland and Western Australia, and get some political airtime post-Covid, and he looks an even bet (like every other poll within the margin of error) to win the election.

The downside risks are all with the government. Having failed to bank the pandemic upside, they risk public frustration with the recovery. Worse still,  having run a protection racket for the states during the lockdowns vis-a-vis the National Cabinet,  Morrison can be rest assured Dan Andrews and co. will throw him under a bus for every failing going forward. Morrison unleashed the tiger with the National Cabinet. It will haunt him to Election Day with a buffer he failed to build.

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50 Responses to Is Morrison Riding All That High?

  1. H B Bear says:

    Better PM number is less than useless. Like SloMo.

  2. Bazinga says:

    Choice between bad and worse is still not an acceptable choice.

  3. Scott Osmond says:

    As for the primary vote being lower than the 2019 election, who would have thought that shitting on the base would have consequences? SFL’s are happier in opposition anyway. They get to play the game, get the perks and best of all indulge their cuck kink.

  4. Buccaneer says:

    It’s just the pollsters going back to business as usual of overestimating left wing support, if the real polling was 50:50, there is no way the alp would be pulling the risky moralising plays they are playing with rope smears. The bigger issue for the alp is that they have nothing, no policy and no reason for punters to support them over the govt, that’s why the smears are out

  5. egg_ says:

    Andrews – and most State Premiers – has exposed Scummo as spineless.

    Yup, any faltering during the alleged “‘recovery” will put the skids under the SFL – Kelly’s resignation from the career politician frauds would be applauded by the “Delcons”.

  6. egg_ says:

    Contrary to Newspoll commentators the upside is all with Albanese. Reject the policies of Shorten (which he seemingly is doing), ride the coat-tails of popular state premiers in Queensland and Western Australia, and get some political airtime post-Covid, and he looks an even bet (like every other poll within the margin of error) to win the election.

    Albo just has to talk up his old favourite of “Infastructure”, as mimicked by Abbott666 and subsequently Trumble (under the headline “disruptive”, genius!).

  7. gorgiasl says:

    Dear Justinian,

    Here are my comments

    Firstly, make your post about 75% shorter and more succinct so we don’t have to waste so much time reading it to get a message that could have been delivered in 3 sentences.

    Secondly, Morrison is generally looking for the easy way out on every front with the objective of pleasing the most people rather than taking a stand on principle (although I will concede that on the 1988 rape allegations he is showing some small amount of reason)

    Thirdly, the only reason that Albo is leader of the opposition is that, a couple of years ago, no-one in Labor thought there was any chance of winning the next election and it would look bad for Plibersek (or any other female) to lead the party to another loss.

    Fourthly, we are now seeing an increasing likelihood that the next election will be a cliffhanger and Scomo might lose. Therefore Tanya is weighing up the options of dumping Albo and winning the next election or letting him lose and then sweeping to victory in the subsequent election – tough choice.

    It’s all pretty obvious and dealt with in a dozen lines.

  8. Pyrmonter says:

    Are we for Federalism, or against it? Would a still more centralised Australia have been more like NSW, or more like Victoria? My hunch is the latter; and for that, I give thanks for Louis Brandeis’s ‘laboratories of democracy’.

  9. Davey Boy says:

    Is it just the case that all SloMo does is follow the Overton window? And does absolutely nothing proactive in that sense.

  10. Mique says:

    It’s amazing how many people fail to understand that Morrison has no power to do anything but to outsource the pandemic risk to the States, even if he had the will to do so. Nor does the so-called National Cabinet have any executive power. It doesn’t even exist in constitutional terms. It would be useful for egg to show how he, if he were in Morrison’s shoes, would (constitutionally) demonstrate the spine that he claims Morrison lacks. Talk’s cheap, egg.

  11. Ben says:

    A good half of the Libs think Dave Sharma and co are the future, and they miss Malcolm.

    The modern Libs are a disaster, only hanging on by the goodwill of rusted-on voters, hoping the next time will be the one that turns things around.

    Won’t be long before the hopeful decide it’s hopeless.

  12. Ed Case says:

    Kelly is Scotty’s pet fake conservative.
    Invermectin?
    Send Craig out to give it the kiss of death.
    Concern over vaccines?
    Send Craig out.
    Great analysis from Justinian The Great, by the way.

  13. Justinian the Great says:

    Really good point Pyrmonter. Worth a good discussion on what Federalism actually means. I am actually not for Canberra centralisation as general rule. I respect and like the principle of Federal-State subsidiary. A great thing about federalism is we get to test things before applying nationally. Hence NSW got to live with COVID better than Victoria because of better government. Imagine if all of Australia was subjected to Dan Andrew’s system? Our Federal system minimised the damage of a Dan Andrews centralised system. That is a good thing. Sadly it did not lead to the implementation of the NSW / Berejiklian system. More sadly the lessons of NSW continue to be ignored. That is a bad thing. Federalism needs competition between states and between states and the federal government that on balance champions success. We lack the latter. Competition is a good thing. State competition is good. State-Federal competition is good. Unfortunately our federal system is broken, does not drive competition, but due to HFC has resulted in a socialist race to the bottom.

  14. candy says:

    PM Morrison would have to be the most cleverly marketed PM and also marketed by himself ever.
    He appeals to the middle class completely, right down to himself being a bit chubby and wearing not flattering clothes, some kind of sporting cap and jersey always, a kind and loving wife not working outside the home but looking after home and family, also a little overweight – completely normal Australian family you see every day, paying their mortgage and loving their kids.

    Building cubby house for the kids (even if the kids are teenagers and would not want a bar of a little house to sit in in the backyard). Asking wife Jen for advice. “Jen says this” etc. Possibly she didn’t say that and would rather speak for herself anyway.

    It is completely and utterly excellent marketing of a middle class daggy dad father with family, who happens to be PM.

  15. H B Bear says:

    The only real difference between the branches of the UniParty is IR, largely of historical interest to a minority of people and of course the funding and organisational structure of the Liars. Fraudenberg continued the spending of Abbott and Waffleworth that has now reached Whitlamesque proportions. If the Liars weren’t presently captured by their Left faction they probably wouldn’t be much different.

  16. Texas Jack says:

    Hardly a day goes by without a spineless Morrison announcing some new $450m package that simply gifts Albanese his only electoral opportunity – that of an ALP post-pandemic spending package that would make Gough Whitlam blush. Albanese will take it and I wouldn’t be surprised if he manages to pull off a near-hung result.

  17. Damon says:

    Labor threw away the last election with their insane grab for franking credits. If they can refrain from going after retirees and the middle class, they may well win. There is very little reason to vote for the Liberals.

  18. egg_ says:

    It would be useful for egg to show how he, if he were in Morrison’s shoes, would (constitutionally) demonstrate the spine that he claims Morrison lacks. Talk’s cheap, egg.

    How many times do I have to rerun ScoMoron’s p1ssweak Couf capitulation speech with WHO cuck C’th CMO Murphy – contradicting Hunt’s dressing down of PvO live on Insiders weeks before, retard?

    – Herd immunity, as PvO tweeted early on per the UK’s then strategy
    – Quarantine is a Federal matter, as Murphy dubbed himself our “Chief Biosecurity Officer” (Ross and Keith Smith were quarantined under same following their record breaking flight from the UK)

    Andrews is but the amplification of Scumoron’s tomfoolery.

    NOW Scumoron is using Risk Management terminology of Review now that a bulldust vax has arrived as airlines are breathing down his neck, likely facing foreclosure.

    He’s a fvcking coward.
    Geddit???

  19. egg_ says:

    The.retards.behind.keyboards.one.meets.on.the.web.

  20. Chris M says:

    The Morrison Government opted from day one to do as little as possible throughout the pandemic

    I’m not a fan of the many leftist aspects of Scomo but I don’t think this statement is very fair. The states are individually responsible for health and the Feds have limited scope in this field.

    You could instead criticize his illegal incarceration of an entire country whilst still allowing in cashed-up foreigners.

  21. min says:

    How are the huge debts run up by Labor governments going to be managed , middle class taxes going up ?
    Labor is going down the gender fluidity road , I reckon there are going to be so many anxious and confused kids from Covid , climate change and wacky curriculums who will think puberty blockers will make them feel better . Meanwhile parents not allowed to interfere or will be charged with child abuse .
    Energy prices will be unaffordable for most so many will sit in misery in the blackouts as we will be dependent on Diesel generators to power the country and we run out of diesel.
    I can predict many more disasters with Lily livered Liberals beaten by LalalandLabor and I have not even started on the impact of the US on the road it’s on .
    I live in Josh’s electorate and many dyed in the wool conservatives have been on Green Kool Aid for the past couple of years . The only thing that I can think will stop this mad mad world is another war .

    .

  22. MPH says:

    Morrison and the federal Liberals have gone the wrong way in a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t standoff with the state governments. It was inevitable that federal money would be thrown at the economy due to COVID but for LNP base support will need to be withdrawn, which gives Labor the easy ‘we’ll keep it going’ line. So to then allow the states to overthrow the federal immigration and border control system was insane – any move by the federal LNP to reinstate control will get thrown back at them as killing granny on top of the funding withdrawal. They should have thrown the state governments to the wolves and only bailed them out once a path to re election was assured. Unfortunately too many LINOs in parliament (think RINO but much more firmly stuck to the floor to be walked all over). Labor will eat them alive at the next election.

  23. Epicurious says:

    “Firstly, make your post about 75% shorter and more succinct so we don’t have to waste so much time reading it to get a message that could have been delivered in 3 sentences.”

    Too bloody right!

  24. egg_ says:

    A great thing about federalism is we get to test things before applying nationally.

    Let Andrews take out an OBOR loan from the CCP and see how VIC stacks up against ScoMoron bankrupting the Federation – the Couf “experiment” taken to its fullest extent.

  25. egg_ says:

    It was inevitable that federal money would be thrown at the economy due to COVID but for LNP base support will need to be withdrawn, which gives Labor the easy ‘we’ll keep it going’ line. So to then allow the states to overthrow the federal immigration and border control system was insane – any move by the federal LNP to reinstate control will get thrown back at them as killing granny on top of the funding withdrawal.

    Crap.

    They created the Couf mess – stiff sh1t!

  26. Mitch M. says:

    gorgiasl says:
    March 1, 2021 at 9:53 pm
    Dear Justinian,

    Here are my comments

    Firstly, make your post about 75% shorter and more succinct so we don’t have to waste so much time reading it to get a message that could have been delivered in 3 sentences.

    Secondly, Morrison is generally looking for the easy way out on every front with the objective of pleasing the most people rather than taking a stand on principle (although I will concede that on the 1988 rape allegations he is showing some small amount of reason)

    Thirdly, the only reason that Albo is leader of the opposition is that, a couple of years ago, no-one in Labor thought there was any chance of winning the next election and it would look bad for Plibersek (or any other female) to lead the party to another loss.

    Fourthly, we are now seeing an increasing likelihood that the next election will be a cliffhanger and Scomo might lose. Therefore Tanya is weighing up the options of dumping Albo and winning the next election or letting him lose and then sweeping to victory in the subsequent election – tough choice.

    It’s all pretty obvious and dealt with in a dozen lines.

    Good analysis.

    Scummo is sometimes displaying a dismissive attitude towards criticism. He is not used to dealing with so much controversy and tries to brush it aside. He is running out of cheap tricks.

  27. egg_ says:

    For people with short memories

    Prepare for ‘zig zag’ approach to lifting restrictions: Chief Health Officer

    NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant says the state should prepare for a “zig and zag” approach to easing the coronavirus restrictions, where certain liberties could be trialled and peeled back if there is a spike in virus cases.

    She also held out an olive branch to business owners who are doing it tough during the shutdown, saying there may be ways to reopen some parts of the economy if businesses can demonstrate they could operate while enforcing vital social distancing measures.

    “The best advice available to me is that a vaccine will not be available [for] 12 months,” she said. “Our response would be different if I knew that we were going to have a vaccine in six months.

    Oh I see – a “magic bullet”, eh?

  28. Iain Russell says:

    With ya, Gorgiasl!

  29. Herodotus says:

    With Liberals drifting left as much as The Australian at state and federal levels, I will be voting for someone like Mark Latham whenever possible. He says a lot of sensible things these days, things that used to be the preserve of the (what used to be) conservative parties in Australia – the Country Party and the Liberals.

  30. Fair Shake says:

    If Labor is smarter than Albo, they’d kick him to the kerb and appoint Plibersek.
    Yes, she has baggage but can present well on TV. The Gallery love a person of uterus as a leader. Watch msm rally behind her. Then let’s see Scomos preferred leader stats.
    Libs are only in front cos Labor can’t shoot straight.
    And no I’m no Labor supporter.

  31. PB says:

    Mainstream now permitting a (very) limited hangout-style mention of an accusation (historical) against a “senior Labor MP”. Seen it mentioned reluctantly on ABC and Nine now.

  32. egg_ says:

    Libs are only in front cos Labor can’t shoot straight.

    Scummo copped a Stephen Bradbury last Election thanks to Bob Brown’s campaigning in Qld.
    Doh!

  33. Perfidious Albino says:

    The MSM will do their best to present ‘the real Tanya’ to mitigate her perception as a nasty, snarling, hyena.

  34. Struth says:

    It’s amazing how many people fail to understand that Morrison has no power to do anything but to outsource the pandemic risk to the States, even if he had the will to do so.

    Please read section 51 of the Australian constitution.

  35. Cassie of Sydney says:

    “Herodotus says:
    March 2, 2021 at 6:21 am
    With Liberals drifting left as much as The Australian at state and federal levels, I will be voting for someone like Mark Latham whenever possible. He says a lot of sensible things these days, things that used to be the preserve of the (what used to be) conservative parties in Australia – the Country Party and the Liberals.”

    Me too Hero.

  36. Roger says:

    The two states the Morrison Government most needs to hold – Queensland and Western Australia – are emphatically stronger for Labor thanks to their response to the pandemic that Morrison enabled.

    Different elections, different issues, at least in Queensland.

    Just ask CFMMEU members what they think of federal Labour.

  37. Eyrie says:

    The idiot Slomoron didn’t close our borders for TWO MONTHS after the Chunks closed Wuhan. There was a Wuhan flight inbound to Sydney when it was announced. Should have been refueled and turned on the tarmac and sent back.
    Did they do anything right at all?

  38. Spurgeon Monkfish III says:

    idiot Slomoron didn’t close our borders for TWO MONTHS after the Chunks closed Wuhan

    Could you imagine the uproar if the fat imbecile had closed them any earlier?

    Hundreds of thousands of mainlanders wouldn’t have been able to slink back into this stupid, stupid country following year of the rat festivities in Wuhan and other mainland cesspits. The screeching would have been audible in space.

    The border closure delay was for very base political reasons – especially now that both major parties have twigged they can be unceremoniously turfed from government if they alienate the mainlander vote – which now numbers in the millions thanks to our wondrous “bipartisan” mass immigration policy.

    Exhibit A: HoWARd in Bennebong in 2007.

  39. Penguinite says:

    Slymo is definitely on the skids! Forming the National Cabinet has been a disaster! It has allowed the Labor Carcase to dominate. We still have several thousand Australians stranded far from home who should have been back for last Christmas! Meantime thousands of international visitors have arrived???

  40. Major Elvis Newton says:

    While no fan of ScoMo, the timing of these months and decades old alleged sexual assaults by Liberal Party men, coincides curiously with high poll numbers for the incumbent PM, Albo’s sink to electoral oblivion and Plibbers desperate try for Labor ascendancy.

    So many questions.

  41. Andre Lewis says:

    If the ALP can’t get headway against the government because of their socialist policies, useless leader and incompetent shadow ministers what can it do? Get it’s media mates led by the ABC to slander government ministers with sexual assault claims of course. Might even work.

  42. sabena says:

    I don’t have access to the historical polls,but my recollection is that most opposition leaders who won elections were trailing in the approval ratings poll before the election.It means nothing at all-only 2pp counts.

  43. Cassie of Sydney says:

    “I don’t have access to the historical polls,but my recollection is that most opposition leaders who won elections were trailing in the approval ratings poll before the election.It means nothing at all-only 2pp counts.”

    Except KRudd in 2007.

  44. bollux says:

    Whilst Pallachook is in, in QLD, Morrison can’t lose.

  45. Forester says:

    …chose not to implement a federally designed and operated hotel quarantine system, not to implement a federally designed contact tracing system (other than the useless Federal Government App), and not to design and implement a uniform standard of testing they were nonetheless paying for.

    He would have known the C’Wealth has no capacity to deliver anything and would cock it up royally, especially with the entire Qld, Vic and WA state administrations determined to sabotage it. They implemented JobKeeper through the ATO’s IT system which the C’Wealth controls.

    We’re going to suffer another trade union kleptocracy sooner or later, our yoof are determined to have their go at getting socialism to work.

    I almost feel sorry for Mr Chalmers; handed $2 trillion debt on his first day…

  46. Mother Lode says:

    The MSM will do their best to present ‘the real Tanya’ to mitigate her perception as a nasty, snarling, hyena.

    Remember when they tried to humanise Gillard?

    Knitting a kangaroo, sitting at the kitchen table with an empty fruit bowl (a hyper bowl?), prattling on about little things…even Bolta was briefly smitten.

    As for the rest of us, a cackling hard witch, all femininity withering away or else shed outright so the shape of a hellish beast showed through like face pressed against a sheet.

    And the goofy familiar, the First Hairdresser, wandering about in confused wonder, and regaling us with stories about how he would run her bath before she came back to the lodge – doubtless because he was afraid she would cast a spell turning him into a fly and then tossing him into a spiderweb, or some such.

    What amazed me was that she was a lawyer, and yet her command of language was comical.

  47. Rayvic says:

    Justinian the Great is being realistic.

    On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition and Labor are 50-50, according to the latest Newspoll.

    Scott Morrison will need to come up with new ideas, as many of the left-leaning Libs are now promoting Labor’s climate change policies, viz. reducing the reliability of electricity supply, but raising its price, by phasing out coal-fired power stations, and adopting the fanciful ‘net-zero emissions by 2050’.

    Why vote Liberal when they have the same policies as Labor?

    Furthermore, the Coalition has failed the financial responsibility test by deciding to continue with wasting some $90 billion on obsolete-technology submarines that would not come into service until the mid 2030s.

  48. old bloke says:

    Good post Justinian, and I disagree with some of the earlier comments regarding the length of your post.

    I don’t think it makes any difference who wins the next election, both the LNP and the ALP hold the same policies which only differ in the minute details. I will cast a valid vote in the Senate as there’s always a possibility that a sensible minor party may secure a seat, but my HoR vote will go into the ballot box with rude pictures on it as any valid vote would only go to a Uniparty candidate.

    Nothing will change until we are rid of the compulsory voting and mandated preferential voting rules.

  49. Ian of Brisbane says:

    Net zero means net zero votes from me. Morrison never misses an opportunity to disappoint.

  50. Squirrel says:

    The disconnect between the 2PP vote and Morrison’s personal ratings does make it look a bit like the punters want to put Labor in, but don’t like the details – that was, of course, also the case during a fair bit of Menzies’ time in office.

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