You too can be a millonaire

From the university funded The Conversation:

If Bitcoin were to lose half its present value — which is not unlikely, given its extremely volatile past behaviour — Tesla will lose around A$1 billion. As Elon Musk owns about a fifth of Tesla, he would then be down A$200 million. In contrast, I own no Bitcoin so I will lose nothing, which means I will have done A$200 million better than Musk.

These people educate your children.

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37 Responses to You too can be a millonaire

  1. Worse. These people manage Australia’s economic institutions.

    About John Hawkins:

    I have a PhD in political science and Masters degrees in Economics and Applied Finance. I have headed the economics division at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and been a senior economist with the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank for International Settlements and Australian Treasury and secretary to the Senate Economics Committee.

  2. Bruce of Newcastle says:

    Wait a bit and we’ll all be millionaires, given current monetary policies.
    Buy a wheelbarrow now before the price goes up.

  3. duncanm says:

    fortunately, he’s getting a complete pasting in the comments.

  4. Snoopy says:

    The Conversation is a national treasure.

  5. Dot says:

    Correct response:

    Okay, boomer.

  6. JC says:

    He’s not educating mine.

    What a [edited. Sinc].

  7. H B Bear says:

    If he works at a University he’s about to get a real life experience of the economy at work. Public servants can ignore this for a few more years.

  8. Roger says:

    The Conversation is a national treasure.

    Chuckles.

  9. cuckoo says:

    I sold all my bitcoins and bought Itchy and Scratchy money.

  10. Damon says:

    “The Conversation is a national treasure”
    A trove of fatuous opinions from academics with too much time on their hands.

  11. Dot says:

    BitCoin has gone from $0 to $61,000 per BTC in under 13 years.

    If we are going to discuss volatility, what about the huge spike in M2 in September 2019?

    (Crickets)

  12. Baa Humbug says:

    Better to have loved and lost, than never having loved at all.

    Better to be Musk and lose 200 million, than not be Musk at all.

  13. Rabbi Putin says:

    It’s a shame they can’t lose. Oh wait, maybe they can…

  14. Rabbi Putin says:

    It’s a shame they can’t both lose. Oh wait, maybe they can…

  15. Lysander says:

    FMD!

  16. pete m says:

    Assume party A and party B both have $1b to invest.

    A keeps it in the bank earning next to nothing.

    B invests it all in bitcoin and loses $200m.

    A is ahead of B now by $200m.

    I believe that is the point being made by the writer, ignoring of course their different starting wealth.

    Haven’t read the convo piece as refuse to give them any clicks so sorry if misconstrue the point made.

  17. H B Bear says:

    The Conversation is a national treasure.

    A glory hole into the world of academia.

  18. John A says:

    Snoopy says: March 5, 2021, at 1:16 pm

    The Conversation is a national treasure.

    Oh, so worth maybe two bob?

    Or is that, “not worth two bob”?

  19. Biota says:

    My father used to jokingly say at the dinner table on occasions that he had made $200 that day by not getting booked while driving. Just a Dad joke rehashed occasionally. I expect the Conversation writer would go try and buy a house for cash if Musk lost his 200 mil and wonder why the money wasn’t there to pay for it.

  20. Jannie says:

    I know the so called Left are usually unable to detect irony, but this surely is just an ironic joke? Like freedom is having nothing left to to lose.

  21. Tom says:

    Author
    John Hawkins John Hawkins is a Friend of The Conversation.
    Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

    Canberra Uni confirms it’s a shitbox regional uni employing dills who couldn’t get a job anywhere else, but who gets published at The Conversation because he has mates who work there. You wouldn’t let your kids near him or it in a pink fit.

  22. Bronson says:

    Canberra Uni use to be Canberra College of Advanced Education – obviously it hasn’t advanced much in education.

  23. Tel says:

    In 2019, on nett, I made more money than Jeff Bezos.

  24. Makka says:

    If BTC were to halve in value I would consider it a Godsend and back the truck up. The days of fiat currency being a measure of wealth are ending. And it will naturally get very messy. Meanwhile the moves to the alternative of BTC continue. Fidelity, G Sux and Citi this last week anointing BTC with the legitimacy of potential int’l trade exchange settlements and client trading/investment services. Baby steps.

  25. Entropy says:

    Bronson says:
    March 5, 2021 at 4:07 pm
    Canberra Uni use to be Canberra College of Advanced Education – obviously it hasn’t advanced much in education

    another Dawkins University. The type of uni that really is t.
    Disclosure: I may in fact have post grad quals from this particular august institution. As I recall be of my professors got exposed for faking her qualifications. Ironically I found her the best teacher of the lot of them.

  26. Entropy says:

    Must not tyyypee on bus.

  27. Terry says:

    Is this the same argument that says earning $15 per hour minimum wage for exactly zero hours per week is helpful to a poor person just “let go” from their $10 per hour full-time job?

    ‘Hey, the Unions have lobbied the government on your behalf and negotiated 52 weeks annual leave (unpaid). Be sure to enjoy that new foodless diet you’re on while you freeze to death outside the place you used to rent. You can thank us later.’

  28. Bruce of Newcastle says:

    If BTC were to halve in value I would consider it a Godsend and back the truck up. The days of fiat currency being a measure of wealth are ending.

    Bitcoin is the perfect fiat currency. It has been invented out of thin air and is only as valuable as people think it is, coupled with a fairly hard limit on the total amount in circulation. Like Dutch tulip bulbs.

    The point about currency is it’s a very helpful means to interchange goods and services. And a convenient way for the government to extract its chunk without all the messy chores of selling the tenth of mint, dill and cumin and other more massy stuff collected in tax.

    So in essence currency doesn’t exist. Instead all you have is a market where X amount of RAM memory chips equal Y tonnes of wheat. You could easily use paper wheat as a currency for everything. Indeed paper gold is about ten times the real tonnage of gold in circulation, and increasingly physical gold is at a premium to paper gold.

  29. Makka says:

    You’re way off the mark Bruce. Way off. The big boys have only just started dipping their toes. Years to go yet and already over 1 Trillion $ market cap.

    Unlike the Trillion$$$$$ to be printed by the Fed into the future and gold above ground or perishable tulips, BTC is finite. There will be only 21 million BTC ever. Whole swathes of accounting and tax related make work will vanish as the blockchain (+AI) automatically does the job of millions of number crunchers and bean counters. Massive transactional savings will accrue over time.

    And another reason why BTC will flourish. It’s not for manipulation and corruption like the odious gold market;

    Indeed paper gold is about ten times the real tonnage of gold in circulation, and increasingly physical gold is at a premium to paper gold.

    BTC is still very young. And up some 124% in a couple months YTD against a sickly USD.

  30. Makka says:

    And, BTC is not fiat as it is not issued by Govt decree. BTC is becoming a store of value as well as a currency due to it’s supply/demand features.

  31. Mother Lode says:

    Assume party A and party B both have $1b to invest.

    A keeps it in the bank earning next to nothing.

    B invests it all in bitcoin and loses $200m.

    A is ahead of B now by $200m.

    Actually, B invests a portion of his fortune in bitcoin which increases in value. Eventually he is up $1 Billion. One day something happens, bitcoin takes a hit, and B is only $800 million ahead.

    A goes on a website and sneers at B’s stupidity.

  32. Baa Humbug says:

    @ Bruce of Newcastle says:
    March 5, 2021 at 6:04 pm

    Bruce, although I am somewhat with you, you got BTC wrong.
    It is not like money, it’s like gold without the physical element.
    Both are ‘mined” with the difference being that Au has a physical presence and a variety of uses. BTC is just ones and zeros in the interwebs.

  33. Squirrel says:

    Yes, why bother taking risks and inventing stuff if there’s taxpayer funded salaries and retirement benefits on offer.

  34. JohnJJJ says:

    I had a go at one of the academics on the Conversation. I wrote that he knew very little of real I s l a m until he had lived in an i s l a m i c society. His reply was that he had refereed over 100 academic articles on the subject. That pretty well sums it up. Of course I was widely criticised.

  35. Roger W says:

    John Hawkins has “been a senior economist with the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank for International Settlements and Australian Treasury and secretary to the Senate Economics Committee.”
    No wonder the country is in deep shit.

  36. Thaddeus says:

    The Conversation is a national treasure.”

    More like a notional treasure.

    As upon any inspection or analysis, it’s not treasure at all

  37. flyingduk says:

    Bitcoin is an early stage, disruptive, cyclical asset. It has had 3 previous ‘4 year cycles’ in which it runs up to dozens or a hundred times its previous value, then ‘crashes’ back by up to 85%, leaving it at a much higher level.

    If that pattern repeats, 2021 will see it top out at 100-300k USD, before ‘crashing’ back to perhaps 100k as the new low.

    I hold it for the empowering effect of ‘state resistant money’, but even if you dont value that, it is now a safer investment to have a position than to not have one.

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