Thanks to South Australia we have a glimpse of the future power supply

Contemplate the future prospects for hot dinners and industrial development.

What do we see? Today we had a wind drought across the southern states. Queensland was not affected as much as the others, and in the afternoon the two wind factories in Queensland were producing as much power as the rest of the SE windfleet combined. By the way, in WA the output from the mills was running as low as 2.5% up to lunchtime.

The chart below shows the wind supply for the NEM (all the states in SE Australia) and also for South Australia alone. The source is found at the Wind Energy tab on the Aneroid Energy site.

The coloured lines are the individual wind farms in SA. The lines indicate the wind power delivered at the time expressed as per centage of the installed or plated capacity. The heavy line that reached 50% in the night, then runs along the bottom of the chart for most of the day is South Australia, ending at 2.4% at 5.10 Sydney time. The other line that ends at 8.1% is the whole of SE Australia.

The wind situation in Victoria was practically the same as SA although the decline started yesterday and the line was below 10% from midnight, hit the floor at 10am and ended the section at 1.3%.

At 6.30pm in Victoria brown coal was accounting for 74% of generation while the wind was kicking in 0.88%. Thanks to brown coal they could spare 480MW, almost half a GW, to support the South Australians where the wind was delivering 8% of local generation, gas 75%, and the battery 2%.

In NSW coal was providing 86% of the power compared with 4% from the wind, while we were taking 500MW from Queensland where coal and gas combined to deliver 90% of the generation compared with 4% from wind.

South Australia shows that the problem with being the wind leader and blowing  up your coal power stations is that you end up depending on coal power from another state that is also determined to blow up their coal power stations.  Almost invariably at breakfast and dinnertime SA imports power, even when the wind is up to the average level (29% of plated capacity.)

When the wind supply is flat on the floor they import all day, even with the substantial contribution from rooftop solar that drives down the demand to a level that threatens to wreak havoc on the grid.  People with panels on the roof may have to stop feeding the grid when the situation is critical and it can only get worse as more solar power is installed.

As to our industrial future, is there any accurate data on the deindustrialization of SA since the craze for RE started? 

Plus a list of failed RE projects of various kinds.

This entry was posted in Electric Power and Energy, Global warming and climate change policy, Rafe. Bookmark the permalink.

29 Responses to Thanks to South Australia we have a glimpse of the future power supply

  1. H B Bear says:

    Forget wind in Autumn and Spring.

  2. Professor Fred Lenin says:

    Instead of blowing up power stations we shoudld be blowing up wind towers and billing the owers for cleaning up and restoring site to pristine condition .

  3. Rohan says:

    Unfortunately Rafe, you’re preaching to the converted.

  4. RobK says:

    Forget wind in Autumn and Spring
    Certainly prime time for longer wind draughts….sometimes early sometimes later.

  5. Squirrel says:

    It’s all OK, Albo from Sussex Street is going to install hundweds of “community batteries” so we’ll all be OK when the sun don’t shine and the wind don’t blow.

  6. min says:

    Rafe where are those pictures of the kids in Africa in cobalt mines ?

  7. H B Bear says:

    It’s all OK, Albo from Sussex Street is going to install hundweds of “community batteries” so we’ll all be OK when the sun don’t shine and the wind don’t blow

    Communidy surely?

  8. duncanm says:

    Matt Kean assures me it’ll be rosy.. with lots of jobs… and unicorns.. and rivers of honey.

  9. Rafe Champion says:

    I know that Rohan, this is a draft of a briefing note to circulate to the full list of politicians, to put on our website and to circulate to others who are not so well informed.

    The idea is to go past the point of knowing it is a crock to be able to quote detailed figures to demonstrate just how hopeless the situation will be when we lose any more coal power.

  10. RobK says:

    Road to nowhere: great solar disappointments
    JP Casey
    6 November 2019 (Last Updated October 4th, 2019 16:14)
    From a solar road in France to a $200bn solar facility in Saudi Arabia, the solar sector has its fair share of failed and struggling projects. JP Casey looks at four of the most disappointing solar projects, and what lessons can be learned from them.

    https://www.power-technology.com/features/solar-failed-projects-struggling/

  11. Professor Fred Lenin says:

    Even that Fat commo mick moore craps all over the billionaires renooables .

  12. Lee says:

    Matt Kean assures me it’ll be rosy.. with lots of jobs… and unicorns.. and rivers of honey.

    Kean is an absolute idiot.
    And is representative of why I think the Libs face the very real threat of losing their conservative/centre-right supporter base, and becoming completely irrelevant.

  13. Mark M says:

    ALBO SAYS SOLAR PANELS CAN CHARGE YOUR ELECTRIC CAR AT NIGHT

    “The future… is solar panels on your roof charging your [electric] vehicle for free overnight”

    Someone may want to tell Albo that solar panels don’t work at night.

    https://twitter.com/MRobertsQLD/status/1377051712842690560

    Only the people who believe in imaginary doomsday global warming heard Albo mention batteries.
    Of course he meant batteries.
    Like when he says carbon tax, taxing an element, he means carbon dioxide, a compound.

    Science!

  14. Mark M says:

    India to Double Down on Coal Projects Amid Climate Warnings

    – Nation plans to auction 67 coal mines for commercial use
    – Coal mining will help create employment, government says

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-25/india-to-double-down-on-coal-projects-amid-climate-warnings

    And here I was preparing for a perfect climate thanks to ScoMo.

  15. Germany has around 30% renewables now, and has hit the wall.

    “Explosive” German Government Audit Report: ‘Energiewende’ Has Become “A Danger For All Of Germany” (31 Mar)

    A new German government audit report warns that the Energiewende is exploding costwise, and that there is a real danger of electricity shortfalls…”a danger for all of Germany”

    Daniel Wetzel at German national daily Die Welt reports on the latest German Federal Court of Auditors’ warning: “If things continue like this, Germany as a business location is in danger. The costs are out of control – and there is a growing threat of an electricity shortfall.”

    This is classic: the Left says renewable energy is getting cheaper and cheaper and is the cheapest electricity there is, but weirdly the actual real world cost of electricity keeps on going up and up. Now it’s at a point in Germany that electricity is too expensive and businesses are leaving. It is also unreliable, which again businesses won’t tolerate.

    Germany has a benefit that we don’t since they can draw on other countries for load management. French nuclear and Swedish hydro power are two sources. We have no one else to draw upon – and as Rafe points out South Australia is already continually sponging off the other states to keep the lights on.

    I cannot see how even 50% renewable electricity is possible, let alone these nutty net-zero proposals.

  16. Rohan says:

    I wish you luck Rafe, but out political elites all have tin ears. Meanwhile our descent into an impoverished 3rd world nation continues unabated.

  17. V says:

    It’s not just wind that is failing.
    Solar is getting worse despite “technological advancement”
    https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2021/03/gsd2020-solar-returns-aint-what-they-used-to-be/

    “Unless there is significantly different technology being deployed, capacity factors* used in business cases need to be between 25%-30%, not 30%-40% (as I have seen in a few places).”

  18. jo says:

    and the battery 2%.

    How long did it produce 2% for and when did it recharge? What Rohan sez. Great work Rafe.

  19. Mark M says:

    Meanwhile, over at the Con … Now they want to charge households for exporting solar electricity to the grid — it’ll send the system backwards

    “It’s come to this.
    The Australian Energy Markets Commission has produced a draft decision that will make households and small business with solar panels pay to inject their surplus production into the grid.

    It suggests an annual charge of about A$100 per solar-connected household.”

    https://theconversation.com/now-they-want-to-charge-households-for-exporting-solar-electricity-to-the-grid-itll-send-the-system-backwards-158055

    The lunatics are in charge and the descent into green insanity continues unabated.

    Can’t say they weren’t warned.

  20. Boambee John says:

    “It’s come to this.
    The Australian Energy Markets Commission has produced a draft decision that will make households and small business with solar panels pay to inject their surplus production into the grid.

    It suggests an annual charge of about A$100 per solar-connected household.”

    They also need to add on an environmental charge for disposal of the dead panels.

  21. Squirrel:

    It’s all OK, Albo from Sussex Street is going to install hundweds of “community batteries” so we’ll all be OK when the sun don’t shine and the wind don’t blow.

    You realise that as soon as the storage (which will never be full, like the dams meant for flood control are never available because it will never rain again.) will be immediately reserved for “essential services” like hospitals and the Police Stations Sergeants Barracks beer fridge.
    And if you have a genset and fuel, by day 2 when the “community batteries” are flat, they will be out confiscating the lot because “fair”.

  22. So the only way to recover even some of the solar panels cost will be to get a battery and run your house on that if you are a low power user.
    Being curious, I thought I’d look at some prices for a battery.
    Nope – won’t give you a price unless they can fill my inbox with a thousand emails a day.
    Piss off.

  23. Being curious, I thought I’d look at some prices for a battery.
    Nope – won’t give you a price unless they can fill my inbox with a thousand emails a day.
    Piss off.

    I don’t bloody believe it!
    Less than an hour since I decided I wouldn’t even bother getting an idea of a quote, I get the first phone call – even though I didn’t give any personal information!

  24. Andy says:

    The Labor Opposition in South Australia is spruiking green powered electrolysis to manufacture “green” hydrogen which will then be used to generate cheap “green” electricity.

    Looking at the generation figures, total, for South Australia over a number of months this fruit loop proposal is nearly as good as Wayne Swan’s promises of a surplus!!

  25. Less than an hour since I decided I wouldn’t even bother getting an idea of a quote, I get the first phone call – even though I didn’t give any personal information!

    @1800 – two phone calls and an email.
    Email claims I asked to be on the mailing list.
    Bullshit. They’ve somehow managed to get my phone number despite my not giving it to them.
    “This is Adam from ****” with a strong subcontinental accent.

  26. Rafe Champion says:

    They must be swapping lists with some other agency.

  27. Rafe:
    Possibly, but I didn’t even send any information – they must have somehow gleaned it from when I was doing the initial question, but I never hit “return” to send the message. Just the “X” thingy at the top right hand of the screen when the screen for name etc came up.
    Therefore there shouldn’t have been any information sent, or am I wrong?

  28. Rafe Champion says:

    More research required Winston:)

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