How public health would report this statistic

Oxford University have produced a Covid-Risk calculator calibrated for the UK; I imagine for Australians it would produce a very slight over estimation of the risk. But not much.

So I filled in the details – leaving the UK post code blank (this would then compare me to the generic UK data and this would the source of the over-estimation of risk).

The probability of me dying from Covid is 0.0099%. That is less than one percent of one percent. But … I’m not as skinny as medical types think I should be. If I was as skinny as the BMI indicated I should be, my risk of dying from Covid would be 0.0079% – even less than one percent of one percent.

Okay – so how would the public health lobby describe this situation?

There is a 25% increased probability of me dying from Covid due to my weight. On that same logic there is a 40% increased probability of me being hospitalised because of my weight.

Now these statistics are ‘true’ but entirely meaningless.

In the meantime – this is one of the more sensible things you’ll have read in the MSM on Covid.

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12 Responses to How public health would report this statistic

  1. wal1957 says:

    Statistics are just statistics. They can be manipulated to confirm your opinion at will.
    Gerbil warming comes immediately to mind.
    Call anybody out on this and you are labelled a ‘…denier. racist, white supremacist etc.
    As for computer modelling? As soon as someone refers to that I tune out.

  2. wal1957 says:

    The following link is Paul Joseph Watson on COVID passports.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcmZG0H4HzE

  3. Mustapha Bunn says:

    Meanwhile the msm in Britain reported yesterday that 25% of deaths attributed to Covid have now been discovered to be due to other factors and not Covid at all.

  4. Speedbox says:

    From the linked article:

    None of this is an argument to “let it rip” but it has been starkly obvious how little work has been done to facilitate the return of the movement of people.

    100% accurate.

    Cats have known for ages but are the public slowly awakening? That covid, whilst serious for the very elderly and infirm, is a non-event for most others?

    Could it be that Morrison and Hunt’s grim faced assessments that ‘normal life’ is a very long time away, be wrong! (Note that if the MSM turn on Morrison and the established covid conventions, the Libs are toast).

    On various threads many Cats have reported their taking of the ‘covid risk assessment’ and found their personal risk is bugger all or, at worst, very low. More, a goodly number of Cats expressed their reluctance to take the AZ vaccine and like manna from heaven, the Gods delivered and AZ was effectively banished.

    In terms of its reputation, Morrison’s trashing of AZ was complete including the late night emergency style press conference and although the government are now scrambling to resurrect it for the over 50s, the damage is done. Fvck knows when the vaccination program will now be completed as we wait for Pfizer and Novavax.

    Meanwhile, the gay leprechaun at Qantas is pushing the original international border open date of 31st October and Albernese and Co are gleefully attacking the govt. I doubt that Labor can believe their luck.

    Without a clear exit plan, we remain on this endless carousel. And although it is tempting to slate this entirely to Morrison, the State Premiers carry their share of responsibility. Unfortunately, most were too busy fortifying their totalitarian plans to contemplate returning any freedoms to their respective citizens.

    In any case, no real thought has been applied to ‘how’ Australia would emerge from this covid crap. The government will find out soon enough that the rest of the world will not wait for us. Some say we get the government we deserve – what, for the love of God, have we done to deserve these idiots.

  5. John Bayley says:

    what, for the love of God, have we done to deserve these idiots.

    Have a look at the average voter and you will have your answer.

  6. Russell says:

    Ain’t maths wonderful. And remember that insurance companies, bookies, casinos and betting shops have been making a tidy living from similar numbers. I am surprised that the lads at Lxxbrokes haven’t put forward a line that allows a punter to bet on their chances of escaping the bug. Or maybe MediBxxk could take a special premium to cover you if you get it. Surely the numbers would be in their favour and customers would be lining up like flies. With careful wording, they could rake in a motza.

  7. gary says:

    In 2004 the annual risk of dying in a car accident in the UK was 1 in 17,655. Lifetime risk of dying in a car accident was 1 in 240.

    In 2004 the US annual risk of dying in a car accident was 1 in 6,478. Lifetime risk was 1 in 82.

    For people without co-morbidities the risk of Covid seems comparable to or less than the annual risk of dying in a car accident.

  8. Fair Shake says:

    Lloyd Christmas : I want to ask you a question, straight out, flat out, and I want you to give me the honest answer. What do you think the chances are of a guy like you and a girl like me ending up together?
    Mary Swanson : Well Lloyd, that’s difficult to say. We really don’t…
    Lloyd Christmas : Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you Mary, just… The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
    Mary Swanson : Not good.
    [the background soundtrack music suddenly stops]
    Lloyd Christmas : [he gulps, his mouth twitching] You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
    Mary Swanson : I’d say more like one out of a million.
    Lloyd Christmas : [long pause while he processes what he’s heard] So you’re telling me there’s a chance. YEAH!
    Dumb and Dumber 1994

    COVID There’s a chance.YEAH!

  9. Lysander says:

    I keep telling people the number 2 cause of death in Australia (even after cancer, heart attacks and all major diseases combined) is abortion.

    The number 1 cause of death is breathing.

  10. Dr Faustus says:

    And the Oxford Covid risk calculator is based on case statistics “from the first peak of the pandemic“. The subsequent two peaks were much larger and the average outcomes far better – in crude terms the average risk of fatality was approximately a factor lower.

    The real scandal for me is the complete lack of a National plan to end isolation, stop the ad hoc lockdowns, and withdraw Government support from the economy.

    Vaccination hubs and wartime cabinets notwithstanding, all governments and agencies know that vaccination will not stop community transmission. Hunt’s weak words might be political cover, but they reveal a minister bobbing along without a clue – which presumably translates to the whole government apparatus.

    Major fail in managing risk and uncertainty.

  11. MACK says:

    It is obvious that Howard Springs in the Northern Territory is the best practice model for quarantine – why haven’t we invested in 20 of them around the country in the name of a national recovery, persisting instead with too small, too risky hotel quarantine arrangements in the city centres?
    Some of us have been saying this for a year. Not only don’t journalists ask why? – they don’t ask why not either. One of the big lessons from the virus is that the journalism curriculum needs root and branch review.

  12. MPH says:

    Brave man trying to explain risk to the great unwashed. Most of them wouldn’t leave bed if they truly knew the odds of surviving the day. My only problem is that those least capable of handling that knowledge also expect everyone else to compensate them for it.

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