Budget 2021 Open Thread

ABC budget cut by a mere $1 million – but more on the way.

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44 Responses to Budget 2021 Open Thread

  1. feelthebern says:

    Let me know if there’s a tax cut for me.

  2. feelthebern says:

    If the tax free threshold was raised by a thousand bucks a year for the next 4 years, that would be smart policy.
    Everyone gets the tax cut.
    Plus it will reduce the amount of people having to lodge a return.

  3. Dave in Marybrook says:

    Plibbersack getting in extra early with a Budget In Reply swipe. About as deep as any BIR, ie tweet length, but outflanked Albo, who must be spittin’ into his Pale Ale.
    Tell me she won’t be leader by Christmas?

  4. Turtle says:

    Spend!

  5. custard says:

    G’Day Dave

  6. C.L. says:

    The mental illness budget, if you believe The Australian earlier today.

    I see that receipts from our mining goodies are unexpectedly higher than forecast and therefore the budget deficit is considerably smaller. Reports today said Sco-Jo is already planning on a pre-election spend with those monies.

    They’re like degenerate gamblers who just found a fiver on the TAB floor.

  7. Spurgeon Monkfish III says:

    $161 Billion deficit.

    Magnificent work, dickheads.

  8. Snotball says:

    Roll out the barrel!

  9. custard says:

    Josh is outlining how he saved us all from the ChinaVirus that has a 99.6% chance of survival if you actually catch it.

  10. Turtle says:

    Spot on CL

  11. MPH says:

    Cancelled due to lack of interest?

  12. Turtle says:

    The Yarts

  13. custard says:

    There is another thread…

  14. Dr Faustus says:

    Tax relief for small brewers and distillers.
    Grog led recovery.

  15. Herodotus says:

    Calli, how did you ever make it without a budget boost as just announced by Mr. Fry?

  16. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare says:

    Lots of spending on not much that will be useful. I haven’t read the thing and digested it yet. It’s dinner time around here. And no-one is on the edge of their seats in anticipation with this Labor-lite spendathon.

  17. H B Bear says:

    Praise the McGowan codpiece.

  18. Pedro the Loafer says:

    Frydeggburger droning away on Sky.

    I’m off to the pub.

  19. Gorilla Dance Party says:

    A simple reform I would like to see (that would never happen), is politicians being legally obliged to phrase spending bills and promises a certain way. They wouldn’t be allowed to say, “I’m giving you…” or “The Labor/Liberal Party is giving you…” or “The Government is giving you…”. They would have to phrase it as “We will allocate tax revenue…” or something closer to the truth. Not doing so would get them fined a huge sum of money for every violation.

    It is a little thing but it could make a big difference. It would at the very least be entertaining watching them try to get around it. The sophistry they’d need to employ to get rid of it would be something else.

  20. Turtle says:

    I’ve got it on in the background.

    I’ll summarise.

    Fryburger: drone drone drone spend drone spend drone drone drone drone spend spend
    Et cetera

  21. Old School Conservative says:

    Geeze Turtle, way to ruin my late night viewing of the recorded speech.

  22. Cardimona says:

    Squanderfest

  23. Joanna Smythe says:

    Budgets are just a load of spin. Everything is in 3 years this will happen, in four years this will happen, on and on into eternity. Load of rubbish because next budget it all changes again. I used to believe what adults told me then I grew up.

  24. feelthebern says:

    Sooo do I get my tax cut ?

  25. Neil says:

    I miss the Howard/Costello budgets. They would predict a surplus budget but the prediction was always wrong. The surplus prediction was correct but the surplus was always bigger than predicted

  26. Ƶĩppʯ (ȊꞪꞨV) says:

    garn git farked

    Despite a bold prediction Australia is still on track to fully vaccinate the population by the end of the year, the budget warns that the borders will remain largely closed until mid 2022.

  27. Terry Pedersen says:

    Margy Osmond is dressed like a serving wench tonight.

  28. Tim Neilson says:

    I’ve got it on in the background.

    I’ll summarise.

    Fryburger: drone drone drone spend drone spend drone drone drone drone spend spend
    Et cetera

    Shouldn’t you have prefaced that with “Spoiler Alert!”?

  29. Dr Faustus says:

    Despite a bold prediction Australia is still on track to fully vaccinate the population by the end of the year, the budget warns that the borders will remain largely closed until mid 2022.

    It’s an election-facing budget.
    The whole mission is to try to declare Victory over Rona as close as possible to a May 2022 election.

  30. luke73 says:

    Borders closed until mid next year?? What the hell, why isn’t their a bigger outcry about this, why are we so behind in the vaccine roll out?

  31. Lazlo says:

    Not the slightest bit interesting. Budget night used to be, in the time of Keating and Costello. These people are in La La Land and completely irrelevant (except for their ability to wreck the economy).

  32. John says:

    What STRINGENT controls will the government have in place to guarantee that nurses look after the residents of Nursing Homes instead of being re-directed to pander to the whims of their extravagantly paid Chief Executives and burgeoning Admin Offices or writing reams of reports to their mates in the Government Health Bureaucracy. It is Carers and AINs that directly look after the residents and the Chief Executives always make sure that hiring them is strictly rationed. The residents are treated as a necessary nuisance in running the business.

  33. Igor says:

    Permanent deficits and growing debt.
    Keynesian crap on steroids.

  34. pete m says:

    Almost miss the old days:

    Ciggies Up
    Fuel Up
    Alcohol Up

    And that was just the budget after party.

  35. John Bayley says:

    why are we so behind in the vaccine roll out?

    Because it has never been about that.
    And also, because the ‘vaccines’ are worse than useless.
    Read this and tell me why anyone pushing that sh*t should not be tried for crimes against humanity?

  36. OldOzzie says:

    The AFR View

    Australia is now a hostage to fortune

    Australia has gone straight back to its recurring bad habit: the permanent spending of any temporary budgetary gain. It just assumes everything will keep going the government’s way.

    Australia under the Morrison government and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has pulled off an astonishing recovery from the pandemic.

    Last year’s emergency spending put a $311 billion backstop under the economy, and the Reserve Bank slashed interest rates to practically zero.

    The reward has been the sharpest of V-shaped rebounds. GDP growth is now forecast to be 4.2 per cent in 2021-22, up from the December estimate of 3.5 per cent. The ASX is at record highs. So is the NAB business confidence forecast. And so is the gusher of an iron ore price which is touching $US230 a tonne – against a price assumption in the budget of $US55 by March 2022.

    Some of the budget deficit pressure has been relieved too. Forecast tax receipts over the next four years are up by $84.5 billion on the revenue expected in December, driven by rising iron ore prices and rapidly recovering employment.

    The October budget, just seven months ago, forecast deficits of $480 billion over the four-year forward estimates, now down to $342 billion, with the forecast $213 billion deficit for this 2020-2021 year cut to a slightly less eye-watering $162 billion.

    Unlike the US and the UK, the government is not raising tax rates to try to cover the damage. The 23.9 per cent tax take to GDP ceiling is still in place.

    Yet any good fortune coming the government’s way has already been spent. The progress made since the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in December has given the government an unexpected $104 billion in extra revenue and unused spending over the four-year forward estimates. But Mr Frydenberg’s budget on Tuesday night spent $96 billion of that.

    Some of it has gone on new incentive and stimulus spending. Extending the low and middle income tax offset for 10 million workers at a cost of $7 billion will cushion women workers in particular hit by the pandemic.

    There is a surprise $20 billion extension of the business expensing and write-off scheme for four years – granted despite the bullish mood among business people – which is hoped to generate 60,000 jobs.

    The age of entitlement, declared dead in Joe Hockey’s 2014 budget, is very much alive and well in this one.

    That will help the unemployment forecasts upon which Mr Frydenberg and the government now will seek to force-feed through even more stimulus spending. The 5.6 per cent jobless rate is forecast to tumble to 5 per cent by the end of this year, and is projected to hit 4.5 per cent by 2023 – the “something with a four in front of it” which has become the Treasurer’s policy touchstone.

    The Treasury is banking that the Reserve Bank’s determination to nail virtually zero interest rates to the floor will give fiscal policy extra bang as it is less likely to be offset by tighter monetary policy. But the most striking fact about the economy right now is the labour shortages in many key areas – astonishing after the mass layoffs of 2020. The biggest shortage now is not of jobs but of workers.

    And much of the extra spending will be structural, rather than temporary, and baked into areas such as aged care and disability, where Australia’s record of spending money well is not good.

    The National Disability Insurance Scheme is already out of control in spending and eligibility terms. The blowout has forced the government to give it another $13.2 billion over the next four years in this budget, making it a spending leviathan that will be bigger than Medicare.

    The big new policy choice is an extra $17.7 billion on aged care, bringing total spending to $119 billion over four years. That will include 80,000 new home care packages and 30,000 training places for aged care workers. But labour has not been easy to recruit in these care areas. Subsidies tend to flow straight into service provider prices. And there is no word of co-payment: making Baby Boomers use their extraordinary housing wealth to pay for their care rather than piling it onto the budget.

    School funding has doubled between 2014 and this budget. The government will boast of spending a total of $289 billion on schools over the next decade. But nobody is being made answerable for the slide down international student rankings. The age of entitlement, declared dead in Joe Hockey’s 2014 budget, is very much alive and well in this one.

    Permanent spending

    Instead, Australia has gone straight back to its recurring bad habit: the permanent spending of any temporary gain.

    There is no plan to restore the fiscal buffers after Australia has suffered two external shocks demanding massive expenditure in just over a decade. Given today’s economic and geopolitical turbulence, it would be a brave person to rule out a third costly, growth-stopping crisis.

    The heroic assumption in Mr Frydenberg’s speech is that Australia will be able to “grow the economy in order to stabilise and then reduce debt as a share of GDP” without running any budget surplus at all. This is an unconvincing fiscal framework that does not actively manage down the deficit. It’s just a hope of some virtuous circle where government spending, growth, less welfare and more taxes somehow shrinks the debt and deficit as we go along.

    Instead, a structural deficit of one per cent of GDP is forecast to persist even into the next decade, until 2031-32 at the earliest. By then, deficits will have lasted 24 years barring the one year in which the Coalition managed to just balance the budget. And this is in a fiscal framework set by the Howard government to supposedly balance the budget over the course of the cycle.

    If bigger government is to be the future, it will further expose the failures of successive governments to make taxation more efficient and less damaging.

    The government’s projected net debt has increased from 24 per cent of GDP before the pandemic, to 40 per cent or approaching $1 trillion by 2024-25. The budget’s conservative assumption for the iron ore price, which is running at four times the $US55 the budget has assumed, provides some comfort. Yet the government’s forecasts for the deficit could also be easily tripped up if other assumptions in the budget’s small print were to change.

    The bipartisan failure to reform the supply side of the economy over the past 15 years has shown up in productivity growth falling well short of the 30-year average performance built into the budget numbers. The budget assumes this will somehow reverse. If it does not, that alone would blow out the deficit by 0.5 per cent of GDP by the early 2030s. And if interest rates and the cost of servicing debt were to rise that too would stretch out the debt. Either could make that forecast of just a 1 per cent deficit in a decade’s time look optimistic.

    COVID-19 has made big government and big spending respectable again around the world, even from traditional fiscal conservatives like the Coalition. Australian federal government expenses as a percentage of GDP hit 32 per cent during this crisis year. They will fall to 26 per cent by 2023 as stimulus measures end, but that is still 2 per cent more than the 24 per cent which was the norm in the 10 years before COVID-19. That could equal $40 billion a year. And if bigger government is to be the future, it will further expose the failures of successive governments to make taxation more efficient and less damaging.

    There is no permanent business investment allowance called for by the Business Council of Australia to counteract the internationally uncompetitive 30 per cent company tax rate. But there is a patent box for medical and biotechnology innovations, which will tax medical and biotechnology innovations developed onshore at a concessional 17 per cent effective corporate tax rate.

    Australia’s great rebound has been underwritten by the confidence created by the government’s massive interventions last year. Yet now the government is using the emergency to make a historic choice to keep spending. Poor quality spending could fail to have the right effect or to get the job wheel turning.

    It is disappointing that Mr Frydenberg is taking such a casual approach to deficit reduction, leaving it to its own devices. But it has been even more disappointing that the government has been so reluctant to spend any of its own political capital in supply-side reforms to tax, workplace relations, and energy policy that would make new public and private money work better. A Keynesian budget last year was to be expected. It met the demands of an emergency where Australia, overall, acquitted itself superbly.

    But to have a budget for the recovery still with so much Keynes and so little Milton Friedman is a worrying comment on the inability of Australia to manage its own recovery.

  37. Pyrmonter says:

    It’s a parody of a Liberal budget speech: full of short ‘bites’ and Blair-esque ambiguities. It surely promises an election in the second half of the year. If that wasn’t an election budget, I hesitate to think what the next will bring.

    But turning aside from the dismay at policy for a moment: when did it become acceptable for the well-educated (Joshy claims a Masters degree from Oxford among his credentials – and a proper one, not a PPE + 20 Guineas one) to end sentences with prepositions?

    A nation to be proud of.

    (And, before someone mentions it, yes, Churchill did it. Churchill won a Nobel Prize for Literature. Anyone who fancies Joshy or his speech-writer could do that presumably takes this budget seriously)

  38. John Brumble says:

    “I will not leave thee, until I have done that which I have spoken to thee of”
    “The iron bit he crushes tween his teeth, Controlling what he was controlled with.”
    “A mail journey from London in winter was an achievement to congratulate an adventurous traveller upon”
    “In my own teaching, I’m at my best when I have something that I feel passionate about but that I can find a way of presenting the play in”
    “What are you going to say or add or write that has not been said or written about?”
    “When this novel first appeared in book form a notion got about that I had been bolted away with.”
    “In her day it was a street of jazz and blues, men in suits, women dressed to kill or die for.”
    “It was Salk’s team that figured out how to grow polio in test tubes – suddenly giving vaccine hunters everywhere enough virus to work with”

    These various examples from reputable literature were gathered by Dr George Stern in his book “The Grammar Dictionary”. They appear under the heading “Language Myths”.

    Now it could be that you’re right and he and all the other writers whose works are listed are wrong. Or it could be that your pompous, snide remark just makes you look silly.

    I know where my money is.

    (Fun game – without Googlery-ing can anyone tell which sentence is from which author/publisher?)

  39. Pyrmonter says:

    @ JohnB

    You don’t think any of those sentences awkward? I can’t pick them; but if provided with them in a draft letter I’d have changed most.

  40. Roger says:

    But turning aside from the dismay at policy for a moment: when did it become acceptable for the well-educated (Joshy claims a Masters degree from Oxford among his credentials – and a proper one, not a PPE + 20 Guineas one) to end sentences with prepositions?

    You’re mistaking Latin grammar for English.

  41. m0nty says:

    Borders closed until mid next year?? What the hell, why isn’t their a bigger outcry about this, why are we so behind in the vaccine roll out?

    Because that would require a competent Federal government response, and the Libs’ ideology is that there is no such thing as competent government, and they try very hard to prove it every time they get in power.

  42. luke73 says:

    Read this and tell me why anyone pushing that sh*t should not be tried for crimes against humanity?

    I have a rule about checking the sources of information I read online, warning signs like are they 9/11 truthers for instance (an obvious warning sign for kooks and conspiracy theorists). You should try it.

    In any case, don’t wanna take the vaccine….don’t take the vaccine. I have faith in the common sense of the vast majority of the Aussie population to discern fact from fiction so we can hit the necessary immunization % to reach ‘herd immunity’ (even without the recalcitrants). The Govt. just needs to pull its finger out and get the Vaccine distributed so we can return to normal life.

  43. John A says:

    Budget?? There was a Budget, was there?

  44. “Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six , result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery” ― Charles Dickens, David Copperfield
    It never sinks in, does it?

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