UPDATE: SEARCHING ON ENERGY REALISM IN AUSTRALIA to see if our site has a web profile yet. This turned up.
Not quite what I was looking for!
Abbott is out, Malcolm Turnbull is back in, and one of the most carbon-intensive economies in the world has some sensible leadership at last as it embarks on an energy transition that is gaining momentum.
Australia has always gotten most of its electricity from coal-fired generation, and coal is one of our two biggest exports. Both traditions are at risk—indeed doomed in the long term —as the global energy economy shifts. Where Abbott clung to a status-quo outlook that refused to see the light, Turnbull is a realist who knows change is on the way.
TWINGES OF CONCERN ABOUT CLOSING YALLOURN
Perry Williams excels himself in skirting around the simple fact that unreliable energy can displace coal but not replace it. Energy Realists of Australia note 21.7.
More than 40 projects totalling nearly 4,900MW completed registration or began exporting to the grid last year, according to AEMO, while a further 300 generation and storage projects totalling 55,000 MWs are proposed across the power grid.
Coal, which currently provides 70 per cent of electricity, will contribute less than a third of
supply by 2040 and is now widely expected to be forced out earlier than planned retirement dates as competition from renewables and carbon constraints render plants uneconomic.
Some things for the ‘you could not make it up’ file.
First of all, green hydrogen. A lazy 300Mil.
The Morrison government will change the investment mandate of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, directing it to make up to $300m available for a new Advancing Hydrogen Fund as part of the national hydrogen strategy.
Consider the second piece in this list. Energy review extracts
In February of this year, the US Department of Energy released a study1 on the potential for hydrogen production using electrolysis instead of SMR. They estimated possible future hydrogen costs by (a) varying the price of electricity, which is by far the largest component of electrolysis costs, and (b) assuming 30%-60% declines in upfront electrolyzer capital costs as production increases
Bottom line: in the absence of a substantial carbon tax, further electricity and capital cost declines are required for green hydrogen costs to converge with fossil-fuel hydrogen costs2. In addition, to meaningfully impact energy consumption, existing turbines, engines, heating systems and other industrial equipment that now rely on natural gas would need to be replaced or upgraded to rely on hydrogen instead. That’s another real-life obstacle that hockey stick forecasts often fail to incorporate.
For the record, the full JP Morgan review is a devastating review of the prospects for the worldwide Green New Deal from a source that is generally as politically correct as can be.
JP Morgan Chase — it’s hard to find a more “woke” company than that one. Under celebrity CEO Jamie Dimon, JPM in its corporate pronouncements consistently positions itself at the most exquisitely correct end of the politically correct spectrum.
But reality can be tough. In its email of a couple of days ago, the Global Warming Policy Foundation links to JPM’s 2021 Annual Energy Paper. The Paper comes from JPM’s Asset and Wealth Management Group. The lead author is a guy named Michael Cembalest, who appears to have his ear right down on the ground of the global energy business. The bottom line is that all the talk about “deep de-carbonization” of the world economy any time soon is a ridiculous fantasy.
And a few dollars for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
The fund focuses on supporting CCUS projects progress towards commercial operations. It will also support the development of processes that can transform CO2 to create economically viable products. These include but are not limited to the production of synthetic fuels, chemicals, minerals and other CO2 recycling and use activities.
CCS is a proven and versatile technology that can permanently cut emissions across energy generation, natural gas and hydrogen production, and heavy industries.
On the other hand, from the JP Morgan review (link above).
After 20 years of planning and conjecture, by the end of 2020 carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities stored just 0.1% of global CO2 emissions. Challenges include cost overruns, failure of bellwether projects (Kemper Mississippi), the US Dep’t of Energy withdrawing support for demonstration projects (FutureGen), cancellations in Europe, legal uncertainties about liability and a 20%-40% energy drag required to perform CCS in the first place.
Bonus. Updating the vegetable patch. Potatoes and lettuce will have to be replaced in the UK by small, mustardy root vegetables and dandelion leaves as a warming climate means we cannot rely on traditional crops, Kew Gardens has said.
What about turnips and rutabagas?
Turnips and rutabagas are both members of the cabbage family, Brassicaceae. The rutabaga is thought to be an ancient cross between a turnip and a cabbage, and therefore a hybrid. Both of these root vegetables are a good source of complex carbohydrates for soups, stew, and casseroles. and have edible greens as well.
More pictures. Very attractive and diverse!
STEVE KOONIN AND UNSETTLED SCIENCE From Forbes.
It is not the global climate system that’s broken, it’s the alleged “climate consensus” that is. That in a nutshell is a central message of physicist Steve Koonin’s new book, “Unsettled: what climate science tells us, what it doesn’t, and why it matters”, available in bookstores and on Kindle on May 4th.
One of the key contributions of Koonin’s book is its detailed account of how the climate change message gets distorted as it goes through successive filters as the research literature gets converted to assessment reports and report summaries which are then subject to alarmist and apocalyptic media coverage and politicians’ soundbites. It is up to scientists to put forward facts without an agenda or a pre-existing narrative, but it is not easy. Koonin says, “I should know, that used to be my job”. He finds it the height of hubris when scientists believe that they should exaggerate or even lie for a higher cause and there could be no higher cause than “saving the planet”. For a scientist with integrity, there is no dilemma between being effective and being honest.
Why is the science so poorly communicated to the public and policy makers? For Koonin, it is clear that distorted science serves the interests of diverse players, ranging from environmental NGOs, media, politicians, scientists and scientific organizations. The ideological corruption of the hard sciences has been remarked upon by others but Koonin covers it with telling examples arising from his own experiences over the years.