David Bidstrup guest post. Some observations on the Indian “Covid crisis”.

In the 71 years since 1950 India’s population has risen from 376,325,200 to 1,380,004,385 – an increase of 3.7 times. The daily death toll in 1950 was 29,035 and in 2020 it was 27,634. Source.

“Our world in data” has daily data starting from 30 January 2020 giving daily cases and daily deaths. Up to 12 May 2021, (469 days), there have been 23,703,665 “cases”. This means 1.7% of the population have been “infected”. In the same period deaths are stated to be 258,317. This is 0.0187% of the population. Source.

Factoring the annual death toll by the number of days of data, (469), the “ordinary” death toll would be 12,960,346 so the “Covid deaths” represent just under 2%, (1.99), of all deaths for the 469 day period.

The interesting thing shows when daily deaths are plotted as a percentage of the “daily all-cause” number, (27,634). For a good part of the time 4 decimals were needed to get the number to show.

The peak was in September 2020 when it was 4% (ish) and it dropped to 0.3272% in February 2021(ish) but since then has rocketed up and now sits at around 15%.

The best I can find on “normal causes” lists the following: (see below).

Note that there is a difference of 8,741 deaths per day. Maybe some are suicides. Australia with a population of 25 million has around 10 a day. India is 55 times larger in population so it is likely they might have 550 suicides a day but the short answer is I do not know how it is comprised. Checking back to 2010 the daily death toll was 25,657, (just under 2,000 less), the population is now 12% larger –doing the numbers gets within 5% agreement – and “The Virus” was not around.

Things will become clearer when the official numbers for 2020 are released but that will take some time. It may be that Indian “authorities” are using the US trick of booking a Covid death if someone gets hit by a bus and the corpse tests positive.

Whenever people hyperventilate with righteous anger if I dare to suggest that things might be being overplayed for dramatic effect I ask them where they get their information. Guess where? I suggest that they invest in a good bullshit filter and develop deep scepticism whenever reading press offerings from any source. I travelled in India 42 years ago and was struck by the poverty but suspect that it’s not that much different now – they are not driving around in Tosserlas.

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16 Responses to David Bidstrup guest post. Some observations on the Indian “Covid crisis”.

  1. Primer says:

    Half of the people involved returned to India in f*ing 2021, since December 2020, in the middle of the pandemic, good little Aussie battlers whining now for repatriation.
    God, how the Chinese laugh.

  2. notafan says:

    Then crisis in India is now the middle classes, including our Australians, are now getting infected.

  3. C.L. says:

    Great analysis. Thank you for putting it together.

  4. Tim Neilson says:

    Thanks David.
    It had occurred to me that in a nation of well over 1 billion population they could have 300,000 plus infections for a day for a year and still have only about 10% of the population infected. But it’s great to get a more incisive analysis.

  5. PB says:

    Seems to coincide with the ramping up of vaccination. Same for a number of other countries now experiencing third waves.

    Appears that recoding the human body to manufacture foreign proteins to attack may not have been such a good idea?

  6. egg_ says:

    Seems to coincide with the ramping up of vaccination. Same for a number of other countries now experiencing third waves.

    Appears that recoding the human body to manufacture foreign proteins to attack may not have been such a good idea?

    Yet more from the “unintended consequences” file?

  7. FlyingPigs says:

    Great analysis. Thank you for putting it together.

    + many.. thanks David.

    I’m actually amazed that the numbers have been so low.

  8. Waz says:

    For those interested this review is a very good summation of the Indian pandemic and the causes of the recent flattening which will surprise many including the WHO and CDC
    https://trialsitenews.com/the-outbreak-in-india-initial-review-of-the-data/?utm_source=Contextly&utm_medium=ChannelEmail&utm_campaign=Ivermectin&utm_content=Popular%2BTrending

  9. Tel says:

    There’s missing parts to this story … India started rolling out the vaccines early 2021.

    https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Image-2464.png

    You can see the correlation there … not claiming this is causation, but worth thinking about. India was fine all through 2020, despite covid cases being around the place, they never had a major problem with it. Something changed in 2021 when things started to go badly wrong.

  10. Chris M says:

    When you hear of situations of 30 infected out of 150 passengers on a plane you figure out that probably it has gone through a large percentage of the country.

    As to why more younger / middle age people are dying from Wuhan virus in India, not sure as there are so many possibilities. They could be less healthy. Could be a genetic factor. Perhaps China released an updated strain (covid21) there as retaliation.

  11. Mullumhillbilly says:

    Here’s hoping ivermectin proves its value as a prophylactic.

    “ Goa Health Minister Vishwajit Rane said an expert panel based in Europe had found the drug ivermectin reduced the time to recovery and risk of death, but regulators such as WHO and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration say there is little evidence of this.

    The state-run Indian Council of Medical Research recommends doctors could use the drug for mild COVID-19 patients, but warns this is based on “low certainty of evidence”.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/desperate-indian-communities-embrace-anti-malaria-drugs-protect-against-covid-surge

  12. Ed Case says:

    29,000 deaths/day in 1950 and 27,000/day now with a 270% increase in population?
    Infant Mortality, or are they fudgeing the numbers for political reasons?

  13. John Bayley says:

    William Briggs ‘The Statistician’ put together some official data from India and put together this very interesting chart, comparing that with the UK.

    To say this whole things is yet another massive beat-up is an understatement.

  14. old bloke says:

    I read that India was using Ivermectin to treat cases which kept the death toll down. At the instigation of the WHO, India stopped using Ivermectin, and the number of deaths then started to soar. They have now gone back to using Ivermectin so the high death rate from Wuhan Flu will fall within a week or two.

    they are not driving around in Tosserlas.

    What is a Tosserlas?

  15. Roger says:

    It may be that Indian “authorities” are using the US trick of booking a Covid death if someone gets hit by a bus and the corpse tests positive.

    I suspect Indian authorities (i.e. the 30 or so states responsible for health care) would be more inclined to under report covid deaths in order to avoid scrutiny of their management of the pandemic. That’s not to say there is a “crisis” as reported, but that any figures coming out of India, a nation where political dissembling is a high art, should be received with a pinch of curry powder.

  16. Mitchell Porter says:

    This is the first time I’ve seen someone argue that the severity of the Indian second wave is being exaggerated. I haven’t seen anyone from India itself argue in this way.

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