Lets see how we go with less coal power

UPDATE From wal1957 in the comments. I notice that nobody has pointed out the obvious…. unreliables regularly stop producing.
Where is the media outcry when that happens?

Of course, it is on the record thanks to Tony from Oz and the Energy Realists of Australia.

Over the relatively short period of the study, significant falls in the supply of wind power, equivalent to the size of a typical coal-fired generator, became more prevalent, larger in size and the power loss occurred more quickly.

Over the two years of the study there were 107 separate entries for power losses of 500MW or more within one hour. 

Frequent outages of coal-fired turbines would be regarded as a serious scandal and receive headline treatment in the media.

One of the four units at Callide power station is off line for a year or so and this has precipitated the experiment, albeit on a smaller scale,  that we were all expecting when Liddell is phased out in two years.  Callide is rated near 1.7GW and was delivering near 1.5GW that is about the same as Liddell and all four units are off line in the aftermath of the explosion that severely damaged one of the four. The immediate effect was a  massive spike in the wholesale price of power. Gas stepped up to pick up the slack to get the lights back on.

A time sequence.

Lets see what happens from here, especially if we get into a wind drought before the three surviving units get up. The wind yesterday was very good across the country, delivering around 5,000MW in the evening and falling steadily today to under 3,000MW tonight.

From wal1957 in the comments. I notice that nobody has pointed out the obvious…. unreliables regularly stop producing.
Where is the media outcry when that happens?

Of course, it is on the record thanks to Tony from Oz and the Energy Realists of Australia.

This entry was posted in Electric Power and Energy, Rafe. Bookmark the permalink.

24 Responses to Lets see how we go with less coal power

  1. Jock says:

    Thats the rub. The entire plan is to keep on building Wind and solar, hoping that if you build enough and use some big big batteries and gas peakers, you wont have a blackout or the grid going down. Thats Keans plan. Even Taylor seems to have given up.

  2. Jock says:

    Note also the cost of replicating over and over then building back up and fixing the grid. The capital cost is huge. Unless the Feds and the states nationalise the lot, all they are doing is letting the “subsidy harvesters” loot us. Given the amount of capital involved I cant see how the price of electricity will not be three times higher than current. If it isnt then even with subsidies, many generators will go bust.

  3. RobertS says:

    Jock said “nationalise the lot”.
    I agree. Cheap, reliable power is essential to the security and future development of this country yet our traitorous politicians are allowing the carpetbaggers to run the show.

  4. wal1957 says:

    I notice that nobody has pointed out the obvious…. unreliables regularly stop producing.
    Where is the media outcry when that happens?

  5. Dr Faustus says:

    Unless the Feds and the states nationalise the lot, all they are doing is letting the “subsidy harvesters” loot us. Given the amount of capital involved I cant see how the price of electricity will not be three times higher than current.

    Correct.
    Government ROI @ bond +2%;
    AGL ROI @ 18%.

    The rent seekers are looking at 20 years of excess profits at Australia’s expense.

  6. nb says:

    The experiment will be a success. Should there be power failures at every turn the resulting social and economic devastation will be publicised as huge gains for the environment. Everyone is a winner. Less power, less wealth, more death, Gaia loves you. China, the ABC, and the ALP, love you. So does Klaus, Vanguard, Blackrock, and Charles. Love is in the air.

  7. mareeS says:

    Let’s just give a year of no coal, no gas, to prove a point.

  8. johanna says:

    Nationalise the lot? Really?

    I thought the problem is that public servants and politicians are messing up the energy supply. To suggest that the answer is to hand the whole thing over to them – after paying out a fortune to private owners courtesy of the poor bloody taxpayer – is crazy talk.

    Or are we now supporting the confiscation of assets by a totalitarian State?

    Unwinding the hot mess that is laughingly described as ‘energy policy’ is hard graft, but it is preferable to statism and handing over the sector to the unions.

  9. Rafe Champion says:

    Thanks for the reminder wal1957, that belongs in the body of the post!

    Fancy forgetting the good work on that topic by Tony from Oz!

  10. Snoopy says:

    We’re saved!

    Minister for Energy, Renewables and Hydrogen Mick de Brenni said the government owned company Powerlink was collaborating with Vena Energy on the project titled Wandoan South Battery Energy Storage System (BESS).

    “Large-scale battery storage completely changes the game for how our electricity system operates,” he said.

    “The $120 million Wandoan BESS project is the first to connect a large-scale battery directly to the state’s grid, supporting 23 jobs while delivering cleaner, cheaper and reliable energy back to Queenslanders, even when the sun isn’t shining.”

    The minister said the implementation will make it the largest battery in Queensland.

    “The battery will have the capacity to power up to 57,000 homes every year, and store 150mWh of energy, so it’s around 25 times the capacity of the largest battery currently operating in Queensland.”

    There’s renewable energy. And then there’s arbitrage energy.

  11. Yarpos says:

    I guess Wals “nobody” is the MSM who generally turn a blind eye. The reality gets pointed out here and on JoNova ad nauseum but is reall preaching to the converted unless the reach is greater than I imagine.

    The political class and the MSM are still in rainbows and unicorns land and will express shock when the house of cards collapses…..then find a way to blame coal and gas.

  12. thefrollickingmole says:

    From the gruinaid, but this is sure to work out well.

    A court in The Hague has ordered Royal Dutch Shell to cut its global carbon emissions by 45% by the end of 2030 compared with 2019 levels, in a landmark case brought by Friends of the Earth and over 17,000 co-plaintiffs.

    The oil giant’s sustainability policy was found to be insufficiently “concrete” by the Dutch court in an unprecedented ruling that will have wide implications for the energy industry and other polluting multinationals.

    The Anglo-Dutch company was told it had a duty of care and that the level of emission reductions of Shell and its suppliers and buyers should be brought into line with the Paris climate agreement.

    I have little sympathy for Shell & co, they did their best to “greenwash” and toasie up to the mongs who are destroying them instead of just switching off production for a week and testing swampies commitment once they cant charge their iphone and the shitter doesnt flush.

  13. PeterW says:

    Nationalise the lot

    Because putting the same people who created this inefficient abortion of a subsidy and monopoly system, in charge of everything, is going to make it work better?

    That makes sooooooo much sense. /sarcasm.

  14. johanna says:

    hefrollickingmole says:
    May 27, 2021 at 8:43 am

    From the gruinaid, but this is sure to work out well.

    A court in The Hague has ordered Royal Dutch Shell to cut its global carbon emissions by 45% by the end of 2030 compared with 2019 levels, in a landmark case brought by Friends of the Earth and over 17,000 co-plaintiffs.

    The oil giant’s sustainability policy was found to be insufficiently “concrete” by the Dutch court in an unprecedented ruling that will have wide implications for the energy industry and other polluting multinationals.

    The Anglo-Dutch company was told it had a duty of care and that the level of emission reductions of Shell and its suppliers and buyers should be brought into line with the Paris climate agreement.

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out when the rubber hits the road. That’s always the way with this nonsense.

  15. John Bayley says:

    Exactly, Johanna – well said.

    First the government screws things up by imposing ever more onerous regulations.

    Then they declare that the state needs to take over what’s left, so it can fix the mess they have created in the first place.

    Rinse & repeat.

    As I have observed here previously, and more than once, the entire system will have to collapse before this mindset changes. And collapse it certainly will, because that’s an essential & inevitable feature of socialism, rather than just a bug, as some continue to claim.

  16. Stan says:

    “The battery will have the capacity to power up to 57,000 homes every year, and store 150mWh of energy, so it’s around 25 times the capacity of the largest battery currently operating in Queensland.”

    We truly are fucked. The Qld govt is spouting this battery as the answer. It will provide as much power as Callide does, BUT ONLY FOR SIX (6) MINUTES!!!! Callide does (or did) provide that power indefinitely.

  17. another ian says:

    Some reading for before you nationalise

    “Jordan Peterson Does A Devastating Critique Of The Communist Manifesto”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2021/05/16/jordan-peterson-does-a-devastating-critique-of-the-communist-manifesto/

    “Too big will also fail”

  18. Shaun says:

    “Jock said “nationalise the lot”.
    I agree. …..”

    No, that’s socialism. What you do is you put in place good regulation, sensible rules and competent oversight. Granted, our corrupt and/or incompetent politicians are nowhere near up to the job, but that would be the CORRECT roll of government in this situation.

  19. RobertS says:

    “Because putting the same people who created this inefficient abortion of a subsidy and monopoly system, in charge of everything, is going to make it work better?”
    Probably not, but it will at least define who is responsible for providing cheap and reliable power.

  20. Roger says:

    I notice that nobody has pointed out the obvious…. unreliables regularly stop producing.
    Where is the media outcry when that happens?

    The take away from Channel 7 news (which my wife happened to be watching) last night was that QLD is over reliant on coal and if we had more RE such blackouts wouldn’t happen.

  21. Ian MacCulloch says:

    No wind overnight in Central Victoria and cloudy skies. RE lights out the front and roof top PV cells not performing well at all. The dogma of blessed light and power coming munificently from the sky is soul destroying to say the least.
    All one can say is that Minister Taylor had a prescient view of Callide – even he would not have been expected to be proved correct in such a forceful manner.

  22. Kneel says:

    “First the government screws things up by imposing ever more onerous regulations.

    Then they declare that the state needs to take over what’s left, so it can fix the mess they have created in the first place.

    Rinse & repeat.”

    In NSW, for electricity specifically, it was:

    Private companies make a hodge-podge of incompatible systems.
    Public outcry demanding uniformity.
    Standard devised and imposed.
    Several existing Co’s go out of business.
    Public outcry for state owned “critical infrastructure”
    GovCo takes over, creating an “independent” Electricity Commission that neither pays GovCo nor requires payment from CovCo, but has a mandate for reliable supply.
    Commission runs successfully for many decades, even when forced to train many more tradies than they actually need and ridiculous union perks.
    GovCo (Askin) decides to pilfer all the income and run the joint on an “allowance”.
    GovCo decides to “privitise” electricity generation, makes a small handful of cash selling assets.
    Profit is now motivating factor, resulting in reduced reliability and maintenance – fortunately, previous reliability mandate has enough to “cover” such shortfalls.
    GovCo mandates “renewables”.
    Same Co’s that own power stations also invest in renewables.
    Renewables are way more profitable, so plans to close coal are accelerated.
    <YOU ARE HERE>
    Collapse of electricity grid results in public outcry.
    GovCo forcibly obtains generation assets at way more than what they sold them for and sets up an independent body to ensure reliable supply….

  23. Jock says:

    When I said “nationalize the lot” I should have said that it was because government (who had privatized many assets) were now intent on belting them up because prices were high in 2019. And also because “climate change” and “Net Zero”. Investors , naturally were scared off due to fears of stranded assets or by overblown Marxists who now sit on Boards and run Super Funds. Or its the Sleeping midgets. Note they are working their way through all companies and industries that use coal or gas. There is nowhere to hide and no one is fighting back. My advice is if you buy an asset from Government…..get a Put inserted in the contract!

    When I mentioned the replication of assets including grids, I was unsurprised that Spark infrastructure awaits a determination on its $2.4 billion interconnect which is essentially an extension cord to ensure “pure green” SA can get copious quatities of coal induced electricity when the wind doesnt blow and its very hot or cold. AS I said, this infrastructure all wants a return.

  24. jock says:

    Spark will be on a winner. As at 3pm SA windfarms are producing a whole 329MW of their 2140 MW plated “capacity”. 15%.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.